On October 8, Serbia’s day-ahead electricity prices declined while Hungary, Bulgaria and Montenegro moved higher, widening price gaps across southeastern Europe. Hungary’s HUPX price reached €214.28/MWh, and its premium over Germany expanded to €74.93/MWh. Germany’s day-ahead price fell to €139.35/MWh.
Hungary’s HUPX increased by €3.50 from the previous day, while German prices dropped by €52.70. The premium over Germany rose from about €18.80 to €74.93/MWh. The regional divergence indicated that the German fall did not translate into comparable relief elsewhere in southeastern Europe.
Serbia and Montenegro diverge across SEEPEX and BELEN
Serbia recorded the largest daily decline among the exchanges covered, with SEEPEX falling €18.60 to €179.39/MWh. The move represented a drop of about 9.4%. Serbian power cleared at €34.89/MWh below Hungary and €29.41/MWh below Montenegro.
The lower Serbian price did not reflect an export surplus. Serbia’s reported power balance still showed imports averaging 988 MW. Daily average spreads were also described as not establishing executable trading margins because they depend on hourly prices, available capacity and transaction costs.
Montenegro moved in the opposite direction, with BELEN rising €11.40 to €208.80/MWh. The increase brought Montenegro closer to Romanian and Bulgarian pricing levels. Montenegro also narrowed its discount to Hungary to €5.48/MWh.
A tighter group above €208/MWh and wider spreads with Albania and Greece
OPCOM in Romania settled at €209.45/MWh, up €0.70, while Bulgaria’s IBEX increased €9.80 to €208.40/MWh. With Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Montenegro all above €208/MWh, the markets formed a relatively tight price group.
Albania remained the most expensive market in the report at €221.53/MWh, up €9.40 on the day. Greece was the cheapest at €165.25/MWh, followed by North Macedonia at €167.78/MWh. The Albania–Greece spread reached €56.28/MWh.
CROPEX in Croatia was at €200.81/MWh, down €3.50, while Slovenia’s BSP eased to €197.10/MWh, down €5.10. Italy slipped €1.40 to €218.84/MWh, keeping a premium of about €10/MWh over Montenegro.
Renewables forecasts rise while net imports fall; forwards strengthen alongside gas and carbon costs
The regional outlook pointed to stronger renewable availability alongside modestly higher demand forecasts. Forecast average consumption increased by 284 MW to 29,944 MW. Solar generation was forecast at 6,118 MW, up 470 MW, while wind rose 959 MW to 2,319 MW.
The combined wind and solar forecast increase was approximately 1.43 GW, compared with the rise in consumption of 284 MW. Net regional imports nevertheless fell 466 MW to 2,004 MW. Imports through the Austria–Slovakia corridor into Hungary and Slovenia declined 542 MW to 1,528 MW.
The report noted that lower imports alongside a wider Hungarian premium warranted attention, while also stating that the figures alone do not establish whether reduced transmission availability, generation changes or hourly market conditions drove the divergence.
Forward prices strengthened for Hungary, with week-42 power up €14 to €216/MWh. The November contract rose €7 to €219.50/MWh. The November Hungary–Germany spread widened by €2 to €42/MWh.
Austrian gas prices also increased, with CEGH gas reaching €78.93/MWh, up €1.10 on the day. November gas rose by €2.50 to €79.50/MWh. EU carbon allowances increased by €0.50 to €85.25/t.
The report highlighted uneven price relief across neighbouring markets as a key signal for trading and industrial buyers as winter contracting advanced.