Electricity prices across southeastern Europe increased sharply for Monday, October 5, with weekday demand returning alongside lower wind generation. The move widened Hungary’s premium over Germany to €76.14/MWh. Hungary’s HUPX day-ahead average rose €71.90 to €232.76/MWh, while Romania’s OPCOM gained €67.50 to €228.48/MWh.
Albania saw the largest increase among the markets covered, rising €119.80 to €277.08/MWh. The price rises coincided with a forecast increase in regional electricity consumption to an average 28,706 MW, up 2,758 MW or 10.6% from Sunday. Wind generation was forecast to fall 886 MW to 2,093 MW, while solar output edged down 87 MW to 5,549 MW.
Demand growth and the renewable decline together implied roughly 3,731 MW of additional supply requirements from other generation and imports compared with Sunday. Regional net imports increased 532 MW to 1,636 MW. Inflows from Austria and Slovakia into Hungary and Slovenia rose 296 MW to 1,326 MW.
Cross-border flows and day-ahead price spreads
Germany moved in the opposite direction to several other markets. Its day-ahead average fell €11.70 to €156.62/MWh, while Austria rose €43.20 to €200.33/MWh. Hungary’s spread over Germany shifted from a discount of about €7.40/MWh on Sunday to a premium on Monday.
Croatia’s CROPEX increased €59.80 to €219.83/MWh and Slovenia’s BSP gained €58.50 to €217.71/MWh. Both remained below Hungary by €12.93/MWh and €15.05/MWh respectively. Bulgaria’s IBEX rose €56.10 to €203.78/MWh and Montenegro’s BELEN climbed €51.60 to €209.92/MWh.
Serbia recorded a smaller increase, with SEEPEX rising €14.70 to €169.68/MWh. The market was still €63.08/MWh below Hungary and €58.80/MWh below Romania based on day-ahead averages. Serbia also showed average net imports of 862 MW.
Net import levels differed across the region: Romania at 1,407 MW, Croatia at 1,090 MW and Hungary at 627 MW. Bulgaria and Greece provided net exports of 1,445 MW and 992 MW respectively.
Other markets and forward indicators
Greece’s HENEX rose €38.70 to €149.51/MWh, remaining €83.26/MWh below Hungary. North Macedonia had the lowest day-ahead average among the listed markets at €145.40/MWh after a €13.70 increase on the day-ahead basis used in the report. The gap between North Macedonia and Albania reached €131.68/MWh.
The spot-market jump was not reflected in forward indications in the report for Hungary week-41 and week-42 products; week-41 power eased €3.50 to €196/MWh and week-42 fell €4 to €203/MWh. November remained at €208/MWh, below Monday’s spot average.
Fuel and carbon price movements were described as modest in the same report period: Austrian CEGH spot gas edged up €0.20 to €75.22/MWh and Greek gas fell €2.30 to €69/MWh. EU carbon allowances held at €84.42 per tonne. The key change highlighted for Monday was the widening regional power-price gap alongside higher imports.