Electricity prices across southeastern Europe fell for 30 September delivery as forecasts pointed to stronger wind and solar output alongside lower demand. The region’s net import requirement declined sharply, while Italy’s market largely held up, widening its premium over neighbouring markets.
On the day-ahead market, Hungary’s HUPX price dropped €24.50 to €145.63/MWh. Romania’s OPCOM fell €25.60 to €144.31/MWh, while Bulgaria’s IBEX recorded the largest absolute decline among the covered markets, down €28 to €133.80/MWh.
Forecasts showed a stronger supply outlook. Average wind generation was expected to rise by 1,519 MW to 6,206 MW, while solar output increased by 939 MW to 5,904 MW. Combined, wind and solar were forecast at 12,110 MW, equivalent to about 42% of regional consumption.
Demand was forecast to fall by 353 MW to 29,112 MW. With lower consumption and higher renewable production, projected net imports for the region declined to just 88 MW, compared with 725 MW a day earlier.
Cross-border flows remained significant despite the near-balanced regional position. Imports through the Austrian and Slovak interfaces were forecast at 1,003 MW, down 486 MW. Net exports towards Italy increased by 124 MW to 1,326 MW.
Italy premium and spot price divergence
Italy’s price slipped only €1.10 to €201.96/MWh for the same delivery date. That left Italy at €56.33/MWh above Hungary, compared with roughly €32.93/MWh a day earlier. The widening differential increased the incentive for deliveries towards Italy, with realised trading margins dependent on transmission access and delivery costs.
Prices across southeastern Europe continued to diverge sharply after the declines. Serbia’s SEEPEX remained the cheapest market covered at €102.94/MWh, down €7.10 and €42.69/MWh below Hungary. North Macedonia’s MEMO fell €24.10 to €108.08/MWh and Greece’s HENEX declined €12.40 to €109.57/MWh.
Montenegro’s BELEN dropped €15 to €115.92/MWh and kept a discount of about €29.71/MWh versus Hungary. Albania’s ALPEX, however, eased only €1.10 to €146.47/MWh, placing it close to the Hungarian level and above several southern neighbours.
Slovenia and Croatia stayed more closely aligned with higher-priced central European markets. Slovenia’s BSP fell €24.90 to €149.11/MWh and Croatia’s CROPEX declined €24.80 to €147.98/MWh; Austria settled at €155.21/MWh and Germany at €140.75/MWh.
Hungary’s premium over Germany edged up to €4.88/MWh despite both markets recording substantial declines. Romania traded just €1.32/MWh below Hungary, indicating closer alignment than the discounts seen in Serbia, Greece and North Macedonia.
Forward power, gas and carbon allowance prices
Forward quotations weakened while still pricing electricity well above the latest Hungarian spot level. Hungarian week 41 power fell €7 to €195/MWh, week 42 declined €6 to €199/MWh and October dropped €7 to €197.50/MWh.
The October quotation remained about €51.87/MWh above the 30 September spot level, indicating that improved renewable conditions did not remove the premium in near-term delivery contracts.
Hungary’s week 41 forward spread over Germany widened by €11 to €39/MWh, while the October spread edged up to €40/MWh.
Austrian CEGH gas fell by €3.10 to €71.64/MWh and Greece’s gas quotation declined by €1.90 to €59.60/MWh. October gas dropped by €3.50 to €71/MWh, while the fourth-quarter contract held at €74.50/MWh.
EU carbon allowances eased by €0.20 to €85.95/t. The day’s figures reflected a stronger renewable balance and reduced aggregate import dependence alongside persistent price gaps between markets used for cross-border trading economics.