Delivery on Sept. 24 saw Southeast European day-ahead electricity prices diverge, with Hungary and Romania recording the largest increases as regional net imports rose above 2.3 GW. Hungary’s HUPX base-load price climbed €40.30/MWh to €239.27/MWh, the highest level in the region. Romania followed at €232.50/MWh, up €34.60, while Bulgaria gained €30.00 to €214.98.
Croatia settled at €212.24/MWh, Albania at €210.96/MWh, and Slovenia at €207.33/MWh. Montenegro closed at €196.29/MWh, while Serbia posted €187.73/MWh and North Macedonia €187.35/MWh.
The move contrasted with Germany, where the day-ahead price fell to €138.12/MWh. The Hungary-Germany spread widened to €101.15/MWh, and Hungary traded €63.68/MWh above Greece. The gap was linked to transmission constraints and a more fragmented regional pricing pattern.
Wind decline shifts physical balance toward cross-border imports
Despite stronger solar output, the physical balance tightened across the region. Combined Hungary and SEE electricity consumption was forecast at 29,381 MW, around 305 MW higher than a day earlier, while regional net imports increased by 806 MW to 2,378 MW.
Imports from core Central European markets rose to 2,157 MW, up 464 MW. Regional solar output increased by around 1.3 GW, but wind production dropped by more than 2.2 GW.
The wind decline mattered most outside the midday solar window, when available renewable generation fell while electricity demand stayed elevated. With aggregate regional generation below consumption, a larger share of demand was met through cross-border flows.
Hungary concentrates scarcity as hourly prices spike in the evening
Hungary remained among the region’s largest net importers, averaging 1,372 MW versus 1,206 MW a day earlier. Domestic consumption rose to 4,711 MW while generation eased to around 3,339 MW.
Hungary imported from multiple surrounding markets while continuing exports toward Croatia and Slovenia. Its role as both a transit hub and a key regional price-setting market was reflected in the hourly HUPX profile.
Scarcity on HUPX was concentrated outside the solar window, with a minimum hourly price of €151.10/MWh and an evening maximum of €403.90/MWh at hour 19. The peak-period average rose to €223.20/MWh, while off-peak power averaged €255.40/MWh.
The Germany comparison remained pronounced because cheaper German daytime electricity did not translate into lower Hungarian prices due to transmission limitations and the timing of regional demand.
Serbia falls lower while remaining positioned between southern supply and Hungary
Serbia was the main exception to the broader upward move in Southeast Europe day-ahead pricing. SEEPEX dropped €8.30/MWh to €187.73/MWh, leaving Serbia more than €51/MWh below Hungary.
North Macedonia traded at €187.35/MWh and Montenegro rose by almost €30 to €196.29/MWh. Despite lower pricing versus Hungary, Serbia remained a net importer.
Serbia continued drawing electricity from Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Bulgaria and North Macedonia while also sending power north toward Hungary. This placed Serbia commercially between lower-priced southern and western supply and a much more expensive Hungarian market.
Serbian hourly prices were volatile: SEEPEX fell to around €80/MWh during daytime before rising to roughly €350/MWh in the evening.
Bulgaria exports toward Romania as OPCOM rises; Greece stays cheapest on midday structure
Bulgaria strengthened its position as one of Southeast Europe’s principal electricity exporters as net exports increased to around 1,453 MW with substantial volumes moving toward Romania. Romania moved deeper into deficit, pushing OPCOM to €232.50/MWh, about €6.77/MWh below Hungary.
The Bulgaria-Romania-Hungary corridor became central during periods when Romanian and Hungarian balances tightened together. Bulgaria’s nuclear, coal and renewable mix continued to support exportable surplus alongside higher Bulgarian prices reflecting strong regional demand.
Greece remained the cheapest major market in the region on delivery for Sept. 24 despite staying a net exporter of electricity. HENEX settled at €175.59/MWh, around €64/MWh below Hungary.
The hourly pattern differed from daily averages: Greek electricity prices fell to zero during the midday solar window before recovering sharply outside solar hours, with peak-period averages remaining substantially below Hungary’s level.
Forward contracts reflect tighter Hungarian balance
Nearby forward trading also pointed to tighter conditions in Hungary’s market area for Sept. 24 delivery timing reflected in contracts for week-40 and week-41 periods. Hungary’s week-40 contract rose to €190/MWh while week 41 reached €199/MWh.
Hungary-Germany forward spreads widened as traders expected Central European price separation to persist beyond the immediate day-ahead session for Sept. 24 trading conditions.
The forward structure aligned with the observed intraday pattern where solar output is abundant during middle-of-day hours in southern markets while value shifts toward moving that energy into evening hours or into deficit markets such as Hungary.
Batteries, flexible generation and cross-border capacity were highlighted by the widening spread between low-priced solar hours and higher-priced evening demand across regional markets for Sept. 24 delivery.