The 2 July SEE power market session delivered a sharp correction after the previous day’s heatwave-driven price spike, but the structure still reflects an incomplete return to normal conditions. Day-ahead prices fell across the entire region: HUPX dropped by €98.2/MWh to €136.93/MWh, SEEPEX declined by €89.5/MWh to €137.41/MWh, Romania (OPCOM) settled at €147.86/MWh, and Bulgaria/Greece (IBEX/HENEX) reached €145.51/MWh. The lowest regional price was recorded in Slovenia at €118.55/MWh, while Montenegro remained the regional peak at €153.84/MWh. Germany, by contrast, traded significantly lower at €73.31/MWh, leaving a still-wide HU–DE spread of €63.62/MWh. This confirms that SEE–Hungary remains structurally detached from core European pricing, despite the strong day-on-day correction.
The main driver behind the price drop was a clear post-heatwave demand reset. Regional consumption declined to an average of 33,865 MW, down 1,252 MW day-on-day, while net imports increased to 3,779 MW (+562 MW). Core inflows via the Austria/Slovakia → Hungary/Slovenia corridor surged to 4,166 MW, up 1,069 MW, indicating that weaker prices were supported more by higher imports than by a structural recovery in domestic generation. At the same time, solar output increased to 7,514 MW (+967 MW), while wind weakened to 1,351 MW (-259 MW), reinforcing a classic summer intraday pattern: stronger midday supply but persistent evening tightness.
The hourly price structure remains the key market signal. HUPX recorded a daily low of €71/MWh at hour 14 and a peak of €250/MWh at hour 20, while SEEPEX ranged from €80/MWh at H12 to €281/MWh at H20. Germany and Austria experienced significantly weaker midday pricing, with Germany even falling to -€3/MWh and Austria to -€4.9/MWh at H14, highlighting strong solar saturation in the core. This created a compressed midday price environment followed by a sharp evening ramp driven by residual demand. Notably, HUPX peak prices averaged only €124.6/MWh, below the €149.3/MWh off-peak average, underscoring how solar is now reshaping traditional baseload assumptions and increasing the importance of intraday trading and flexibility assets.
Country-level flows confirmed a clear regional split between surplus and deficit zones. Bulgaria remained the largest exporter at 920 MW, followed by Bosnia and Herzegovina at 519 MW. Greece moved close to balance at just 59 MW net export, a sharp reversal from the previous day. On the deficit side, Romania imported 1,980 MW, followed by Hungary (1,709 MW), Serbia (619 MW), Croatia (387 MW), Montenegro (296 MW), Slovenia (197 MW), and North Macedonia (63 MW). Romania stands out as the key stress point, where reduced domestic output and high regional demand turned it into the dominant import sink.
Serbia remained tightly coupled with Hungary. SEEPEX traded at €137.41/MWh, only €0.48/MWh above HUPX, confirming near-perfect price convergence. Serbian consumption fell to 3,643 MW, while generation stood at 3,025 MW, resulting in a 619 MW net import position. Although lower demand reduced import dependency compared to previous sessions, Serbia remained structurally short. Importantly, the price signal was not driven by isolated domestic scarcity but by broader HUPX-linked regional balancing, with Serbia simultaneously importing from neighboring systems while participating in cross-border flows toward Hungary and Romania.
Montenegro once again represented the clearest scarcity premium in the region. BELEN settled at €153.84/MWh, the highest price in SEE and €16.91/MWh above HUPX. With consumption at 434 MW and generation only 138 MW, Montenegro recorded a 296 MW deficit, driven by extremely limited domestic supply. This reinforces the structural sensitivity of small systems to hydro availability, thermal constraints, and interconnection limits during summer stress conditions.
The forward curve partially eased but did not eliminate the regional risk premium. Hungarian Week 28 power fell to €107.50/MWh (-€8.5/MWh) and Week 29 to €141/MWh (-€6.5/MWh), while the HU–DE forward spread remained at €16/MWh (Week 28) and €32/MWh (Week 29). Gas and carbon softened slightly—CEGH at €44.65/MWh, Greek gas at €45/MWh, and EUA at €79.54/t—but these movements were not sufficient to fully explain the spot correction. The dominant driver was clearly weather normalization, reduced residual load, and stronger import availability, rather than a structural shift in fundamentals.
Overall, the trading signal remains mixed rather than bearish. The extreme heatwave premium has unwound, but SEE markets—especially Hungary, Romania, Serbia, Montenegro, and the Greece–Bulgaria corridor—continue to trade with elevated volatility and persistent evening scarcity risk. Key indicators for upcoming sessions remain hour 20 price spikes, core AT/SK → HU/SI flows, Romanian import dependency, Montenegro’s structural deficit, and Serbia’s near-parity with HUPX. Any return of higher temperatures or weaker renewable output would quickly reintroduce upside risk across the region.