Week 25 offered an early map of the risks that could shape SEE electricity markets through the summer of 2026. The week combined higher demand, lower hydro in key markets, weaker wind, rising thermal dispatch and sharp evening price formation. That is the pattern most likely to define the next phase of summer trading.
The first risk is cooling demand. Regional electricity consumption rose 3.1% to 16.34 TWh, with Bulgaria and Croatia showing especially strong increases. Italy added the largest absolute demand volume, reinforcing its role as the region’s main import sink. As temperatures rise, demand pressure will become more concentrated in late afternoon and evening hours.
The second risk is hydro availability. Regional hydro generation fell 4.7% to 3.57 TWh, with declines in Italy, Bulgaria and Romania. Hydro is the region’s most important flexible renewable resource. Weak hydro does not only reduce supply; it reduces the system’s ability to respond to evening ramps.
The third risk is renewable shape. Solar output rose 8.1%, but wind declined 4.4%. That mix creates midday supply but does not fully protect the evening market. Higher solar penetration will increasingly produce lower daytime prices and stronger evening spreads unless storage expands.
The fourth risk is thermal dependency. Thermal generation rose 19.4%, and gas-fired output increased 32.3%. Lower gas prices helped the cost base, but power prices still rose because dispatchable output was needed. Summer scarcity will therefore depend on plant availability, fuel logistics and carbon-cost exposure.
The fifth risk is cross-border congestion. SEE net imports declined, but Italy still imported 1.12 TWh net, while Greece and Bulgaria deepened exports and Serbia moved into modest net export. The summer market will reward countries and traders with access to transmission capacity during high-value hours.
The sixth risk is price divergence. Türkiye remained at €16.66/MWh, while Italy reached €127.69/MWh and Hungary €109.16/MWh. Such wide spreads create commercial opportunity, but also expose the limits of regional integration.
The summer market is therefore moving toward a more volatile structure: cheaper solar hours, expensive evening ramps, wider cross-border spreads and stronger value for flexibility. SEE’s summer price risk will be decided by the interaction of heat, hydro, wind, storage, interconnection and the availability of dispatchable capacity.