SEE day-ahead power prices rose sharply for Monday delivery as weekday demand returned, although the regional market remained split between a tightly coupled Central European cluster and a cheaper southern Balkan zone shaped by solar output, grid constraints and weaker Greek price formation.
Hungary’s HUPX day-ahead baseload settled at €125.41/MWh for 22 June, up €40.6/MWh day on day. Romania’s OPCOM followed at €124.05/MWh, while Slovenia’s BSP and Croatia’s CROPEX cleared almost level with Hungary at €124.63/MWh and €124.65/MWh, respectively. The narrow spreads left the north-western SEE corridor effectively coupled with the Hungarian hub for the session.
The southern part of the region remained significantly cheaper. Greece’s HENEX settled at €82.87/MWh, Bulgaria’s IBEX at €91.50/MWh, Serbia’s SEEPEX at €90.14/MWh, Albania’s ALPEX at €93.95/MWh and Montenegro’s BELEN at €106.03/MWh. The Hungarian premium over Greece widened to €42.54/MWh, while HUPX traded €35.27/MWh above Serbia and €33.91/MWh above Bulgaria.
The price split reflected a Monday demand recovery but also uneven transmission deliverability across the region. Forecast SEE and Hungary consumption rose by 3,970 MW day on day to 31,181 MW, with the strongest absolute demand blocks in Romania and Bulgaria combined at 9,325 MW, Slovenia and Croatia at 9,456 MW, Greece at 6,254 MW and Hungary at 4,781 MW.
Despite higher demand, the regional balance did not show a straightforward import-led scarcity event. Net imports for the SEE plus Hungary region were reported at -475 MW, indicating a net export position on the aggregate balance and a day-on-day swing of 884 MW away from imports. Core inflows from Austria and Slovakia into the Hungary–Slovenia area dropped to 460 MW, down 1,095 MW from the previous day.
Italy remained the premium market in the wider comparison, with the Italian day-ahead price at €141.81/MWh, or €16.40/MWh above HUPX. That left export incentives toward Italy intact where cross-border capacity was available, especially against lower-priced Greece, Bulgaria and Serbia.
Hourly profiles showed a classic summer shape. HUPX bottomed at €32.3/MWh in hour 14, before reaching €274.8/MWh in hour 21. Similar evening ramps were visible in Romania, Slovenia and Croatia. The intraday structure pointed to solar-led midday compression followed by evening scarcity as photovoltaic output faded and residual load rose.
The generation mix reinforced that pattern. Total generation in the reported regional balance fell by 900 MW day on day to 26,801 MW. Solar output rose to 5,691 MW, while hydro declined to 5,168 MW, gas slipped to 3,908 MW, coal stood at 4,206 MW, wind increased slightly to 2,230 MW, and nuclear remained broadly stable at 5,059 MW. Solar accounted for around 21% of the shown power balance, with hydro and nuclear each near 19%.
Serbia was the main pricing outlier. SEEPEX was almost unchanged day on day, rising only €0.1/MWh to €90.14/MWh, while neighbouring Croatia and Hungary moved more than €40/MWh higher. The resulting €35/MWh discount to HUPX suggested that Serbia was priced closer to the Bulgaria–Greece complex than to the Hungary–Croatia–Slovenia corridor.
Montenegro occupied a middle position. BELEN rose by €28.4/MWh to €106.03/MWh, still €19.38/MWh below HUPX but materially above Serbia, Albania, Bulgaria and Greece. North Macedonia also strengthened sharply, with MEMO up €40.0/MWh to €117.39/MWh, narrowing its discount to Hungary to €8.02/MWh.
Forward markets pointed to firmer near-term Hungarian power expectations. HUPX week 26 rose to €141.50/MWh, week 27 to €135.50/MWh, July 2026 to €122.50/MWh and Cal-26 to €111.50/MWh. Gas was broadly stable at CEGH, quoted at €43.41/MWh, while Greek gas moved higher to €41/MWh. Coal forwards also strengthened, with July API-2 at $114.5/t and Q3 at $113/t.
The trading signal for the session was therefore less about uniform regional tightness and more about location and shape. Hungary, Croatia, Slovenia and Romania priced as a high-value corridor, Greece and Bulgaria stayed at the low end of the stack, and Serbia’s discount left cross-border capacity as the key determinant of value capture. The strongest trading opportunities were concentrated around the H10–H15 solar trough, the H19–H22 evening ramp, and the large spreads from the southern Balkans toward Hungary, Croatia, Slovenia and Italy.