SEE day-ahead power prices rose sharply for delivery on 23 June, with Hungary, Romania, Slovenia and Croatia moving close to Central European levels as the market repriced around a steep evening residual-load ramp, while Serbia and Albania remained heavily discounted.
Hungarian day-ahead baseload on HUPX settled at €173.04/MWh, up €47.6/MWh day on day. Romania’s OPCOM was almost aligned at €172.88/MWh, rising €48.8/MWh, while Slovenia’s BSP cleared at €169.63/MWh and Croatia’s CROPEX at €170.37/MWh. The move placed the northern SEE cluster close to Germany at €174.91/MWh and Austria at €169.46/MWh, with Italy lower at €153.83/MWh.
The sharpest divergence came further south. Serbia’s SEEPEX cleared at €93.36/MWh, only €3.2/MWh above the previous session, while Albania’s ALPEX stood at €93.48/MWh, down €0.5/MWh. Montenegro’s BELEN settled at €115.30/MWh, up €9.3/MWh, and North Macedonia’s MEMO fell €11.4/MWh to €105.96/MWh. The Serbia-Hungary day-ahead spread widened to almost €80/MWh, reinforcing Serbia’s position as the main discount node in the regional map.
The price formation was not driven by an outright shortage in average supply. Regional consumption was forecast at 31,785 MW, up 840 MW day on day, while total generation also increased. Hydro output rose to 6,324 MW, solar to 6,609 MW, gas to 4,634 MW, coal to 4,549 MW, wind to 2,809 MW, and nuclear remained stable at 5,033 MW. The regional system therefore had a broader supply base than on Monday, but price risk concentrated in the evening hours, when solar output faded and flexible generation set the marginal price.
Hourly profiles showed the key trading signal. Hungary’s maximum hourly price reached €496.1/MWh, Germany €545.5/MWh, Romania €493.0/MWh, Slovenia €478.3/MWh, Croatia €481.8/MWh and Austria €488.7/MWh. The maximum prices were concentrated around hour 21–22, while minimum prices remained around the midday solar window, mostly around hour 14. HUPX’s minimum price was €62.4/MWh, Romania’s €62.6/MWh, Slovenia’s €63.1/MWh, Croatia’s €63.0/MWh and Austria’s €62.9/MWh.
That shape leaves the SEE-Hungary market increasingly split between weak midday pricing and very strong evening flexibility premiums. The spread between midday and evening prices again supports the case for pumped storage, batteries and dispatchable hydro, especially in markets exposed to rising solar penetration but still dependent on thermal or hydro flexibility after sunset.
Cross-border flows also showed a fragmented regional balance. The SEE-Hungary aggregate was close to flat, with net import at -146 MW, while CORE imports into the region fell sharply to 176 MW, down 604 MW day on day. The HU-DE spread moved to -€1.87/MWh, showing that Hungary was not priced below Germany despite the steep regional rally. Greece appeared as a major exporter at around 1,405 MW, while Croatia, Romania and Serbia were net importers on the regional balance chart.
Forward markets did not fully follow the day-ahead spike. Hungarian Week 27 power was unchanged at €135.50/MWh, while Week 28 fell €8/MWh to €112.50/MWh and July 2026 declined €3.5/MWh to €119/MWh. The curve therefore treated the spot move as a near-term scarcity event rather than a full repricing of the front month. Gas was firmer, with CEGH at €43.85/MWh and Greek gas at €42/MWh, while EU carbon rose to €81.57/tCO₂. Coal forwards were broadly stable, with API-2 July at $114.5/t and Q3 at $112.5/t.
For Serbia, the daily structure is commercially significant. SEEPEX remained nearly €80/MWh below HUPX and OPCOM, creating a strong theoretical export signal into higher-priced neighboring markets, subject to available transmission capacity and nominated cross-border flows. The persistence of that gap underlines the value of interconnection rights and border capacity in a market where price convergence remains incomplete even during high regional stress hours.
The same market signal strengthens the investment case for flexible assets. Serbia’s planned 650 MW Bistrica pumped-storage hydropower project, now moving through financing talks with JICA, is directly aligned with the regional price profile: low-to-moderate midday prices, strong evening scarcity and rising need for balancing as solar and wind output grow. Montenegro’s transmission upgrade plans around Perućica and Pljevlja, with potential capacity for around 550 MW of new renewable connections, point in the same direction for the western Balkan grid.
Weather risk remains the next short-term driver. Forecast regional temperatures for SEE and Hungary excluding Greece are expected to rise from 24.5°C on 23 June to 26.3°C by 26 June, with Serbia rising toward 27.0°C and Montenegro near 30°C. That would keep cooling demand supportive while preserving the evening ramp problem, particularly if wind output weakens or cross-border imports remain limited.
The 23 June session therefore delivered a clear market message: SEE power is no longer trading as one regional block. Hungary, Romania, Slovenia and Croatia priced into a Central European evening-scarcity structure, while Serbia and Albania remained materially cheaper. The arbitrage value is visible, but the ability to capture it depends on border capacity, dispatch flexibility and access to assets capable of shifting energy from solar-heavy hours into the evening peak.