Coal and lignite played a larger role in South East European (SEE) power generation during Week 24, despite a general decline in day-ahead electricity prices across most markets. At first glance, this seems contradictory, but the explanation lies in the simultaneous rise of renewable output combined with a sharp drop in hydropower generation.
Regional hydro production fell by 300.2 GWh (−7.5%) to a total of 3.70 TWh. Türkiye accounted for the largest share of the decline with a drop of 229 GWh, while Bulgaria decreased by 42.9 GWh, Greece by 17.3%, Serbia by 4.2%, Romania by 2.4%, and Italy by 2.2%. This reduction in hydropower removed a key source of flexible, low-marginal-cost generation precisely as summer demand began to increase.
Thermal generation stepped in to cover the gap, rising by 362.6 GWh (8.7%) to reach 4.52 TWh. The increase was driven entirely by coal and lignite, which surged by 420.6 GWh (24.4%) to 2.14 TWh. In contrast, gas-fired generation declined by 58.0 GWh (−2.4%), falling to 2.38 TWh. This shift highlights how coal and lignite regained importance in system balancing during hydro weakness.
Türkiye led the coal expansion with an additional 260.6 GWh, followed by Italy with 81.2 GWh and Serbia with 66.0 GWh. Bulgaria and Romania also recorded increases. As a result, the regional dispatch structure became noticeably more coal-intensive, even as stronger wind and solar output helped keep wholesale prices under pressure.
For industrial power buyers, especially those focused on carbon exposure and emissions reporting, this dynamic is critical. A lower spot price does not automatically mean cleaner electricity. In Week 24, cheaper power in several markets coincided with higher coal and lignite usage due to reduced hydro availability.
Overall, the generation mix suggests a more complex summer ahead. While renewables will increasingly cap daytime prices, hydropower variability will determine how much thermal generation is required during peak and evening hours. Coal and lignite therefore remain a key part of SEE price formation, still acting as marginal resources when hydro output underperforms.