The Southeast European power market moved into a highly fragmented pricing structure on 12 June, with Central European markets rallying sharply while the Western Balkans remained heavily discounted. Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Greece all traded above €110/MWh, while Serbia cleared at only €74.33/MWh, the lowest price in the region and more than €37/MWh below HUPX.
The day-ahead market reflected a widening east-west divergence driven by stronger renewable production in the Balkans and increased imports from Central Europe into the regional system. Hungary’s HUPX surged to €111.89/MWh, Romania’s OPCOM reached €111.30/MWh, Bulgaria traded at €110.88/MWh, and Greece led the region at €116.43/MWh. Serbia’s SEEPEX stood out as the regional outlier at €74.33/MWh, while Albania and Montenegro cleared at €84.07/MWh and €89.44/MWh respectively.
For traders, the most important signal was the return of a strong Hungary-Germany spread of €14.43/MWh, compared with a negative spread the previous day. This immediately increased the attractiveness of imports from Austria and Slovakia into the Hungarian and wider SEE market, with cross-border inflows from the CORE region rising to 1,182 MW.
From a fundamentals perspective, regional consumption eased slightly to 29.3 GW, while total generation slipped to 29.4 GW. Solar output declined sharply by 769 MW day-on-day to 6.27 GW, but this was largely offset by a significant recovery in wind generation, which rose by 442 MW to 1.56 GW. Hydro remained the dominant generation source at 6.67 GW, accounting for approximately 24% of the generation mix. Coal contributed 5.2 GW, gas 4.3 GW, and nuclear 4.1 GW.
The regional power balance reveals a market that remains structurally long in renewable output despite the reduction in solar production. Net imports for the combined SEE-Hungary region were only 65 MW, indicating near self-sufficiency. However, internal regional flows remained substantial, with Hungary importing heavily from Austria and Slovakia while Greece continued to attract power from northern neighbors.
A key trading development remains Greece’s persistent premium. At €116.43/MWh, HENEX traded nearly €42/MWh above Serbia and over €5/MWh above Hungary. The premium continues to reflect Greece’s structural dependence on gas-fired generation during evening peaks and its growing role as a regional gas hub.
Forward markets offered a mixed signal. Hungarian Week-25 baseload strengthened to €109/MWh, while Week-26 rose to €123/MWh. German Week-25 power advanced to €114.50/MWh, indicating that traders continue to price tighter conditions into the second half of June despite improving renewable availability. Gas remained stable, with CEGH Austrian gas at €50.76/MWh, while EUA carbon allowances eased slightly to approximately €77/tCO₂.
Several structural developments reported across the region are becoming increasingly relevant for medium-term market pricing. Hungary commissioned its largest battery project to date, a 99.8 MW / 288.6 MWh storage facility developed by Greenvolt near Buj. At the same time, Budapest unveiled a €1.5 billion grid-modernization package designed to unlock approximately 4.8 GW of additional renewable capacity. These developments reinforce Hungary’s position as one of the fastest-growing flexibility markets in Central Europe.
Romania continued to accelerate storage deployment. PPC Renewables announced battery integration at its Colibasi solar facility, while Allview Energy completed a 120 MWh battery project at the 69 MW Teius solar plant. Combined with rapid smart-meter deployment by PPC’s distribution subsidiary, Romania is building the digital and physical infrastructure required for higher renewable penetration and future ancillary-service markets.
For Serbia, the most significant strategic development remains the reported agreement between Serbian authorities and MOL regarding a potential acquisition of the majority stake in NIS currently held by GazpromNeft. Although the transaction still requires OFAC approval and agreement between the Russian and Hungarian parties, the proposal would increase Serbian state influence over the company and secure commitments regarding continued operation of the Pancevo refinery. From an energy-security perspective, the development reduces uncertainty around Serbia’s largest downstream energy asset.
Looking ahead to the weekend, weather forecasts point to warmer conditions across most of SEE. Temperatures in Serbia are expected to rise from 17°C on Friday to around 22°C on Saturday before easing slightly. Greece remains above 24°C, while Montenegro and Albania continue to experience temperatures near 23–25°C. These conditions should support another strong solar generation weekend, potentially widening the discount of Western Balkan markets relative to Central Europe if interconnection capacity remains constrained.
The dominant market theme remains the emergence of a two-speed regional electricity market. Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Greece continue to trade near or above €110/MWh, while Serbia, Albania and Montenegro are increasingly reflecting localized renewable surpluses. For traders, utilities and battery operators, the widening spreads between Central Europe and the Western Balkans are creating growing arbitrage opportunities, particularly as new storage assets enter service and cross-border flows become more valuable during periods of solar oversupply.