Southeast European electricity markets traded in mixed directions for Wednesday delivery, with Central European hubs maintaining strong price support above €125/MWh while Greece and parts of the southern Balkans remained under pressure from renewable generation and lower marginal costs. Regional demand increased, but declining solar and wind production tightened supply-demand balances and prevented broader price declines.
Hungary’s day-ahead market on HUPX settled at €126.90/MWh, down marginally from the previous session but continuing to anchor the region’s higher-priced markets. Slovenia’s BSP exchange cleared at €127.60/MWh, while Croatia’s CROPEX closed at €127.45/MWh, effectively maintaining price convergence with Hungary. Romania’s OPCOM followed closely at €125.04/MWh, reflecting strong integration with Central European fundamentals. Serbia’s SEEPEX settled at €115.78/MWh, remaining at a discount to neighbouring EU markets but comfortably above southern Balkan exchanges. Greece’s HENEX recorded the region’s lowest price at €104.15/MWh, while Bulgaria’s IBEX cleared at €112.15/MWh.
The regional power balance tightened as electricity consumption increased to approximately 29.7 GW, up by 930 MW day-on-day. At the same time, total generation declined by nearly 1 GW, creating a more supportive environment for wholesale prices. Solar generation fell by 436 MW, while wind production declined by 322 MW, removing some of the renewable pressure that had weighed on prices during previous sessions. Hydro output also softened slightly, although the technology remained the region’s largest generation source alongside solar.
Hydropower and solar each accounted for roughly 24% of regional electricity generation, followed by coal at 16%, gas and nuclear at 15% each. Net imports represented only 2% of the overall supply mix, highlighting the region’s continued ability to balance internally despite weaker renewable production.
Cross-border fundamentals showed a notable reduction in import dependency. Total net imports into the SEE-Hungary region fell from 596 MW to 306 MW, while imports from Austria and Slovakia into the Hungarian market dropped sharply from 1,819 MW to 1,098 MW. The reduction suggests stronger regional balancing and less reliance on western European supply despite elevated prices.
Commercial flow data indicated continued exports from Romania into Hungary, strong Bulgarian exports toward Serbia and North Macedonia, and persistent Slovenian exports into Italy. These patterns underline the role of Hungary as the region’s central balancing hub, with neighbouring markets increasingly responding to local renewable production and congestion dynamics rather than purely following German pricing signals.
Intraday price profiles across HUPX, SEEPEX, OPCOM and BSP continued to display pronounced solar-driven volatility. Prices weakened significantly during midday hours before rising sharply during the evening ramp period. Peak prices generally occurred around hour 21, when reduced solar output combined with strong residential demand pushed values toward €180-203/MWh across several markets. Midday troughs remained substantially lower, creating wide daily spreads attractive for battery storage operators and flexible generation assets.
Forward commodity markets provided a more bearish signal. Austrian CEGH gas eased to €50.28/MWh, while EUA carbon allowances fell to €76.15/t. German Week-25 power declined to €108.50/MWh, and Hungarian Week-25 contracts slipped to €113.00/MWh, indicating expectations that stronger renewable generation and moderating temperatures will reduce spot market pressure later in June.
Weather forecasts support that view. Temperatures across Hungary, Serbia, Romania, Bulgaria and Slovenia are expected to decline materially during the second half of the week. Serbian temperatures, for example, are forecast to fall from around 24°C to below 19°C, reducing cooling demand and potentially easing pressure on thermal generation and imports.
For Serbia, the day highlighted a relatively stable market position. SEEPEX traded around €11/MWh below HUPX and BSP, maintaining competitiveness against neighbouring markets while benefiting from regional import opportunities from both Hungary and Bulgaria. The spread structure continues to favour cross-border optimisation and short-term balancing strategies rather than structural imports.
Market participants will now focus on whether renewable output recovers as forecast later this week. A combination of cooler temperatures, softer gas prices and weaker carbon markets suggests downside pressure on spot prices, although evening scarcity premiums remain firmly embedded in the regional market structure. For battery storage operators and flexible generation assets, the widening gap between midday and evening prices continues to provide one of the strongest trading opportunities currently available across Southeast European electricity markets.