Day-ahead electricity prices across Southeast Europe fell sharply for delivery on 11 June, with expanding solar generation, cooler temperatures and improving regional supply balances pushing markets lower and widening the gap between renewable-rich eastern markets and premium-priced Italy.
Serbia recorded the steepest decline among major exchanges, with SEEPEX falling by €37.4/MWh day on day to €78.37/MWh, the lowest price in the region. Slovenia’s BSP exchange dropped to €94.71/MWh, while Croatia’s CROPEX settled at €96.01/MWh. Hungary’s HUPX and Romania’s OPCOM both remained near the €100/MWh level despite declines exceeding €24/MWh. Montenegro stood out as the highest-priced market at €104.74/MWh, while Italy continued to trade at a significant premium of €127.23/MWh.
The market correction came as temperatures retreated across much of Central and Southeast Europe. Regional average temperatures fell to 20.4°C, while Serbia experienced one of the sharpest drops, declining from 24.2°C to 18.3°C. Lower cooling demand reduced system stress at the same time that renewable generation remained elevated.
Regional power generation rose to 29.1 GW, up almost 1 GW from the previous day. Hydro output increased by 190 MW, coal generation rose by 316 MW, and gas-fired generation climbed by 317 MW, while solar production remained exceptionally strong at 6.6 GW, accounting for approximately 23% of total generation. Hydro remained the largest single source at 24% of the generation mix.
The stronger supply balance sharply reduced import requirements. Net regional imports fell to only 70 MW, compared with 235 MW a day earlier, demonstrating how domestic renewable generation is increasingly displacing imported electricity during daylight hours.
Romania continued to emerge as one of the most influential markets in the region’s renewable transition. Solar generation reached a new all-time record of 2,634 MW, surpassing the previous national high set only days earlier. During peak production, solar represented roughly 43% of Romanian generation, enabling exports of approximately 1,600 MW into neighboring markets.
The Romanian record follows broader structural changes occurring across the region. Hungary has now become the world’s most solar-intensive electricity system, with solar accounting for 27% of national electricity generation during 2025, according to figures cited in the report. The growing penetration of photovoltaics is increasingly reshaping market fundamentals, suppressing daytime prices while creating steeper evening ramps that favour flexible generation and storage assets.
Cross-border flow patterns reflected these dynamics. Romania and Bulgaria remained major exporters, while Hungary, Greece, Croatia and Serbia continued to rely on imports during parts of the day. The spread between Serbia and Italy approached €49/MWh, creating attractive export economics for generators capable of accessing western European demand centres through regional interconnections.
Forward markets, however, remained considerably stronger than prompt prices. Hungarian Week 26 contracts traded at €117/MWh, July contracts at €121.5/MWh, while carbon allowances strengthened to €76.94/t and Austrian gas rose to €50.67/MWh. The resilience of forward curves suggests traders continue to price weather-related risks, hydro uncertainty and potential summer demand spikes despite current renewable abundance.
For market participants, the latest trading session offered another indication that Southeast Europe is entering a new phase of power market behaviour. Solar output is increasingly setting daytime prices across Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Serbia, reducing thermal generation’s influence during midday hours. As photovoltaic capacity continues to expand and battery projects move toward commercial operation, the value of flexibility, balancing services and evening peak generation is likely to become more important than simple energy production volumes.
The resulting market structure is becoming increasingly familiar: depressed midday prices, strong evening recoveries, widening intraday spreads and growing opportunities for battery storage operators, hydro generators and traders able to arbitrage between renewable-rich Southeast Europe and structurally tighter western European markets.