Week 18 gas data showed a market moving back into geopolitical risk pricing. Dutch TTF futures rose +5.5% week-on-week, averaging €45.39/MWh, after briefly softening to €43.67/MWh before rebounding to a weekly high of €46.86/MWh on 29 April. By the end of the week, prices consolidated near €46/MWh, showing that the market had absorbed the first upward move but had not removed the risk premium.
The trigger was the continued uncertainty around the U.S.–Iran conflict and shipping disruption risks around the Strait of Hormuz. The report notes that 20% of global LNG passes through the Strait, mainly from Qatar, but only 8% of EU LNG imports come from Qatar. That limits Europe’s immediate physical supply exposure, but not its price exposure. A prolonged conflict would intensify competition for non-disrupted LNG cargoes and raise Europe’s import bill.
The financial sensitivity is large. The report states that a doubling of gas prices could add about €100bn to European gas import costs over the next 12 months, compared with €117bn spent on EU gas imports in 2025.
The LNG flow picture across SEE was mixed but strategically important. Greece’s LNG inflows fell -23.0% week-on-week to 510.99 GWh, while Italy increased LNG inflows by +17.81% to 5,106.75 GWh. Croatia recorded the sharpest regional change, with LNG inflows rising +180.8% to 712.48 GWh, strengthening the role of the Adriatic corridor in regional gas balancing.
This points to a more diversified but still price-sensitive European gas system. Europe is less vulnerable than in the 2022 Russian supply crisis because of warmer weather, additional LNG supply, weaker Chinese LNG demand, and storage support. Wood Mackenzie data cited in the report says 40 mtpa of new LNG supply was added on an annualized basis since the start of 2026, while European storage stood at 28% at the end of March.
For SEE power markets, gas remains the marginal-price anchor. Even though thermal generation declined in Week 18, gas-fired plants still determine evening and balancing-hour electricity prices when solar output falls. Greece reduced gas-fired generation by -22.4%, while Romania increased gas generation by +57.1%, showing that national gas-to-power exposure is diverging sharply.
The main market signal is that SEE gas risk is shifting from physical shortage to cost volatility. Italy and Croatia are strengthening LNG-backed optionality, Greece saw lower LNG inflows for the week, and TTF remains exposed to geopolitical headlines. For regional utilities, traders and large industrial buyers, the key risk is no longer only access to gas, but the price at which flexible gas can support power balancing during volatile renewable and peak-load periods.
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