Electricity prices across Southeast Europe climbed sharply on Thursday 7/5 after weaker renewable generation and rising import dependence tightened regional supply balances, exposing the growing volatility now shaping Europe’s peripheral power markets.
Benchmark day-ahead prices rose across nearly all major regional exchanges, with Hungary’s HUPX and Romania’s OPCOM both trading near €140/MWh, while Croatia, Slovenia and Albania also posted strong gains. Serbia’s SEEPEX remained the region’s lowest-priced market at €114.79/MWh, though prices there still increased more than 10% day-on-day.
The rally marked a reversal from earlier sessions dominated by heavy renewable generation and depressed midday prices. Regional solar production fell by roughly 734 MW from the previous day, while wind generation also weakened, forcing greater reliance on thermal generation and imports.
Net electricity imports into the SEE and Hungarian market area surged to 954 MW, compared with a near-balanced position a day earlier, as total regional consumption climbed above 28 GW while generation declined.
The tightening balance pushed thermal generation higher, with gas-fired output rising by more than 100 MW and coal generation also increasing. Traders said the move underscored how quickly regional markets remain exposed to swings in renewable production despite rapid solar and wind expansion.
Price spreads against Germany also widened again after several sessions of compression. Hungary traded roughly €4/MWh above Germany, reflecting stronger import demand into Central and Southeast Europe.
The market reaction comes as Southeast Europe increasingly grapples with the operational consequences of rapid renewable deployment without matching investments in storage and grid flexibility.
Greece has emerged as one of the clearest examples of those pressures. According to the report, renewable curtailments in Greece jumped 49% year-on-year during the first four months of 2026, while the number of zero or negative pricing hours surged to nearly 240 hours in the first quarter alone.
The growing imbalance between solar generation growth and grid flexibility is now accelerating battery storage investment across the Balkans and Central Europe. North Macedonia’s Oslomej solar complex is adding a 50 MW / 200 MWh battery system, while Hungary’s Alteo recently commissioned 70 MW of new storage capacity.
At the same time, policymakers across the Western Balkans are warning that the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, or CBAM, is beginning to distort regional electricity trade flows.
Energy ministers from Montenegro, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia and Kosovo have called on Brussels to revise CBAM electricity rules, arguing that the mechanism is discouraging EU buyers from purchasing Balkan power exports, including hydroelectric generation.
Montenegro’s state utility EPCG said CBAM-linked market effects reduced export revenues by roughly €13 million in the first quarter, despite strong hydrological conditions that boosted production.
The pressure is also feeding into wider state intervention across regional energy markets. Serbia said this week it is considering acquiring a 50% stake in the Plandiste wind project currently owned by oil company NIS, part of broader efforts to strengthen control over strategic energy infrastructure amid heightened volatility in global energy markets.
Forward markets, however, continue signaling expectations that current spot tightness may prove temporary. Hungarian Cal-26 power contracts eased toward €103/MWh, while regional gas and coal forward prices also softened.
For traders, the combination of volatile renewable output, growing curtailment risk and rising evening balancing requirements is rapidly reshaping Southeast Europe’s electricity market structure. What was once largely a fuel-driven market is increasingly becoming a flexibility-driven one, where storage capacity, cross-border transmission access and hydro balancing capability play a central role in price formation.