South-East European electricity markets moved higher for 6 May delivery as weaker renewable generation, tighter regional balances and stronger evening ramping requirements pushed spot prices upward across nearly all major exchanges. Hungarian HUPX baseload climbed to €126.25/MWh, while Romania’s OPCOM settled at €131.52/MWh and Slovenia’s BSP reached €133.81/MWh, extending the recent rebound in Central and SEE power pricing.
The regional market structure continued to show increasing intraday volatility despite relatively moderate overall demand conditions. Total SEE and Hungarian power consumption eased to 27.8 GW, down roughly 340 MW day on day, but falling renewable output tightened system balances and increased thermal generation requirements.
Solar generation across the region dropped by more than 520 MW, while wind output declined by around 150 MW compared with the previous trading day. Hydro production also weakened by approximately 340 MW, reflecting lower water availability and reduced flexibility across several Balkan systems.
Thermal assets moved back into the dispatch stack to compensate for the renewable decline. Coal-fired generation increased by more than 600 MW, while gas-fired output rose by around 180 MW. The shift reinforced the increasingly visible structural dependence of SEE markets on conventional balancing capacity during evening demand ramps and lower renewable periods.
Market participants continued monitoring widening divergence between daytime and evening pricing profiles. Hourly curves across HUPX, OPCOM, BSP and HENEX again displayed deep midday weakness followed by pronounced evening peaks during hours 20–21, reflecting growing solar cannibalization effects combined with insufficient storage capacity across the region.
Hungary maintained its role as the central balancing hub within the regional market structure. The Hungarian-German day-ahead spread widened sharply to around €3.8/MWh, reversing part of the earlier convergence seen during periods of stronger renewable output in Central Europe.
Cross-border flow data pointed to continued north-south balancing pressure. Romania exported roughly 1.36 GW, while Serbia remained structurally short with net imports near 560 MW. Croatia also remained a net importer at around 730 MW. Bulgaria continued exporting heavily toward Romania and Serbia, while Hungary maintained strong exports into Croatia and Serbia.
Forward markets also strengthened, supported by firmer fuel and carbon prices. Hungarian Week 20 baseload rose to €104.5/MWh, while Cal-26 traded close to €114/MWh. EUA carbon allowances climbed toward €75.7/t, while Austrian CEGH gas prices increased above €49/MWh.
The strengthening forward complex continues to support elevated clean spark and dark spread economics for flexible thermal assets across SEE, particularly during evening balancing windows.
Operational reliability of regional thermal infrastructure remained under scrutiny. Bosnia’s RiTE Ugljevik reported a €18.3 million first-quarter loss after prolonged outages linked to coal supply shortages and delayed mining development works. The unit only recently returned to operation after being offline since January.
Montenegro’s EPCG also reported a sharp deterioration in financial performance, posting a €92.1 million net loss for 2025 following the extended environmental reconstruction outage at TPP Pljevlja. The eight-month shutdown significantly reduced domestic generation availability and increased balancing costs for the utility.
Hydropower development projects across the Western Balkans continued facing financing and execution challenges. Bosnia’s HPP Dabar project slowed substantially after China Exim Bank suspended financing linked to unmet contractual milestones. Meanwhile, ERS terminated the construction contract for HPP Mrsovo following disputes over redesign requirements tied to stricter flood-protection standards.
In Romania, authorities launched a proposed €500 million support mechanism for biofuel production projects, including SAF and renewable diesel facilities, under the Modernization Fund framework. The scheme highlights growing regional investment focus on decarbonization-linked industrial infrastructure rather than purely conventional generation expansion.
Serbian market participants continued closely following negotiations surrounding NIS ownership restructuring. Energy Minister Dubravka Djedovic said discussions involving MOL and GazpromNeft could conclude by mid-May, ahead of the OFAC licensing deadline later this month.
Weather forecasts for the coming days indicate relatively stable temperatures across most SEE markets, limiting immediate demand-side volatility. However, traders remain focused on renewable generation variability and evening balancing risks as the region enters the higher solar-output summer season.
The broader market narrative increasingly reflects a transition from traditional supply scarcity toward flexibility scarcity. While renewable penetration across SEE continues rising rapidly, the pace of storage deployment, interconnection upgrades and balancing-market development remains insufficient to fully absorb intraday renewable volatility.
As a result, regional markets continue experiencing simultaneous midday oversupply pressure and evening scarcity pricing, reinforcing structural volatility across both spot and forward curves.