South-East European power markets moved sharply lower in Week 17 (20–26 April), tracking a broader European correction driven by strong renewable output and weaker demand, while gas markets firmed on renewed geopolitical risk, setting a higher floor for forward power pricing.
Day-ahead prices across the region posted double-digit declines, with the steepest corrections seen in Croatia and Hungary, where weekly averages fell to €72.92/MWh (-30.3%) and €80.31/MWh (-27.3%), respectively. Romania and Bulgaria followed with prices easing to €86.99/MWh (-17.5%) and €81.82/MWh (-16.8%), while Greece dropped to €78.61/MWh (-16.2%). Serbia saw a more moderate decline to €80.41/MWh (-11.6%), reflecting comparatively tighter system conditions. Italy remained the regional premium market at €109.12/MWh, despite a softer week-on-week trend.
The correction mirrored developments in core European markets, where prices fell more aggressively, led by Germany, the Czech Republic and Slovakia with declines exceeding 40%, while France collapsed to €7.62/MWh (-89.3%), indicating extreme oversupply conditions tied to high nuclear and renewable output. The Iberian markets remained broadly stable around €50/MWh, highlighting continued regional decoupling within Europe.
Despite the weekly downturn, early indications for Week 18 point to renewed upward pressure. Day-ahead prices on April 28 rebounded across SEE, ranging between €97.01/MWh in Greece and €112.66/MWh in Hungary, underlining persistent volatility and the absence of a stable downside in current market conditions.
On the demand side, electricity consumption across SEE declined by -2.6% week-on-week, reversing the previous week’s growth. Italy and Türkiye led the downturn with contractions of -4.1% and -3.9%, respectively, while Hungary also posted a -4.1% decline. In contrast, Romania and Greece recorded increases of +6.5% and +3.2%, suggesting localized demand recovery linked to weather patterns and short-term economic activity.
Supply dynamics were dominated by a sharp drop in wind generation. Total variable renewable output across SEE fell by -11.3%, driven by a -29.3% collapse in wind production, while solar output increased by +8.8%, partially offsetting the decline. The largest reductions in wind were recorded in Türkiye (-40.4%), Croatia (-22.9%) and Greece (-16.3%), reinforcing the system’s exposure to weather-driven volatility.
Hydropower output remained broadly stable at -1.5%, although national trends diverged significantly. Croatia posted a sharp increase of +145.2%, while Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania recorded declines of -23.4%, -27.4% and -9.8%, respectively. Thermal generation decreased by -6.4%, led by a -14.3% drop in gas-fired output, while coal generation rose modestly by +3.3%, highlighting continued fuel switching in response to gas price dynamics.
Cross-border flows expanded notably during the week, with the region’s net import position rising by +39.7%. Greece and Romania both shifted from net export to net import positions, while Serbia also moved deeper into import territory. Italy remained the dominant net importer, while Croatia strengthened its export position and Hungary’s surplus narrowed.
Market liquidity remained highly concentrated. Weekly traded volumes reached 20,340 GWh in Italy, significantly outpacing other markets, followed by 3,560 GWh in Greece, 2,450 GWh in Bulgaria, and 2,260 GWh in Hungary. Serbia continued to show limited liquidity with just 110 GWh traded over the week, underscoring structural constraints in regional price formation.
In gas markets, TTF front-month futures extended gains early in the week before stabilizing. Prices rose from €40.29/MWh to a peak of €44.86/MWh, with a weekly average of €43.03/MWh, marking a +1.3% week-on-week increase. By April 27, prices eased slightly to €44.65/MWh, suggesting consolidation near the mid-€40/MWh range.
The upward pressure was driven by renewed geopolitical uncertainty linked to stalled US-Iran negotiations and escalating tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. Disruptions to LNG flows have already altered the global gas balance, with estimates pointing to a cumulative loss of around 120 bcm of LNG supply between 2026 and 2030, equivalent to roughly 15% of expected global supply growth. This has delayed the anticipated market loosening by up to two years and reinforced the role of gas as a key price-setting component in European power markets.
LNG flows into Europe showed mixed signals. Greece recorded a +22% increase in LNG inflows to 663.83 GWh, while Italy maintained its position as the dominant entry point with 4,334.7 GWh. In contrast, Croatia saw a sharp decline of -60.8%, highlighting the volatility of regional LNG infrastructure utilization.
The interplay between weakening renewable output, shifting cross-border flows and firming gas prices suggests that while short-term price corrections remain likely, the broader market structure continues to support elevated price levels and high volatility across SEE power markets.