The SEE market opened with a clear bullish reset, driven by colder weather, higher regional demand, weaker RES output and stronger import dependence. HUPX settled at €112.66/MWh, up €9.4/MWh day on day, while Romania rose sharply to €110.89/MWh, Bulgaria to €101.50/MWh, Serbia to €107.06/MWh, Croatia to €109.76/MWh and Slovenia to €108.93/MWh. North Macedonia remained the regional low at €74.54/MWh, while Italy stayed the premium market at €115.80/MWh.
The main driver was the regional balance tightening. SEE consumption increased to 29,312 MW, up 1,234 MW versus the previous day, while total net imports jumped to 1,752 MW, an increase of 1,509 MW. Core imports from Austria and Slovakia into the HU/SEE perimeter rose to 3,336 MW, showing that Central European supply was again needed to cover regional shortness. At the same time, solar output fell by 1,424 MW and wind by 243 MW, removing cheap midday supply and lifting the whole daily curve.
The spread structure confirms the tightening. The HU-DE spot spread widened to €47.31/MWh, up €14.7/MWh, showing that Hungary and SEE were priced materially above Germany. The HU-GR spread narrowed to €15.65/MWh, meaning Greece was closer to the regional price stack but still below HUPX. The import signal was therefore strongest from the northwest, while southern SEE markets remained less expensive than Hungary.
Serbia traded in line with the regional core rather than the lower Balkan fringe. SEEPEX reached €107.06/MWh, up €10.3/MWh, leaving Serbia €5.60/MWh below HUPX but above Greece, Bulgaria, Montenegro, Albania and North Macedonia. This points to Serbia being pulled by Hungary-Croatia-Slovenia pricing rather than by the cheaper southern markets.
The intraday shape remained highly volatile. HUPX showed a deep midday trough, with the daily minimum around hour 15, and a strong evening ramp, with the maximum around hour 21. This confirms the dominant April pattern: solar depresses midday pricing, but once solar fades, residual demand and imports drive steep evening scarcity premiums.
Forward indicators were mixed. CEGH gas stayed around €46.05/MWh, Greek gas eased to €45.9/MWh, EUA moved slightly higher to €75.11/t, while Hungarian forward power showed week-19 at €99.50/MWh, week-20 at €91.00/MWh, May-26 at €93.50/MWh and Cal-26 at €111.50/MWh. Coal forwards remained around $104.5–114.5/t, keeping thermal marginal costs firm but not the sole driver of spot pricing.
The trading conclusion is straightforward: 29 April was not a fuel-cost rally, but a balance-driven repricing. Lower RES, colder weather, stronger demand and higher imports tightened SEE-Hungary supply, widened the HU-DE spread and lifted Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia and Romania into the €107–111/MWh band. Midday downside remains visible, but the evening ramp is now the key risk window for traders.