Electricity prices across Southeast Europe and Hungary moved sharply higher on 27 March, reversing the softer trend seen earlier in the week as tighter supply conditions, stronger cross-border flows and firming fuel markets lifted spot levels across most hubs.
Day-ahead prices on the Hungarian HUPX market climbed to €141.83/MWh, up €8.2/MWh day-on-day, setting the tone for the region and re-establishing Hungary as the premium market in Central Eastern Europe.
The upward movement was mirrored across neighbouring markets, with Romania’s OPCOM rising to €112.37/MWh (+€24.8) and Bulgaria’s IBEX reaching €112.31/MWh (+€27.5), marking the strongest day-on-day gains in the region.
In Southeast Europe, Serbia’s SEEPEX recorded one of the most notable rebounds, with prices increasing to €88.67/MWh (+€23.1), while Montenegro’s BELEN market rose to €93.80/MWh (+€6.3).
By contrast, some western SEE markets showed partial correction, with Croatia’s CROPEX falling to €120.63/MWh (-€10.2) and Slovenia’s BSP slightly easing to €121.98/MWh (-€0.5), reflecting localized balancing rather than a broader regional trend.
The overall price spread across the region remained wide, with Serbia at the lower end and Italy peaking at €148.35/MWh, highlighting persistent structural fragmentation and congestion-driven price divergence.
Underlying fundamentals point to a tightening supply-demand balance. Total regional consumption was forecast at 34,261 MW, while generation reached around 33,500 MW, leaving the system marginally short and reliant on imports.
Net imports into the SEE-Hungary region stood at 937 MW, with core imports from Austria and Slovakia reaching 2,844 MW, indicating continued dependence on western inflows to stabilize the system.
At the same time, the HU-DE spread narrowed sharply to €23.3/MWh, down significantly day-on-day, suggesting reduced arbitrage space and a partial re-coupling with Central European pricing signals.
Generation data shows a relatively balanced mix, with hydro and coal each contributing around 21%, nuclear at 18%, gas at 14%, and renewables maintaining a stable share with wind at 10% and solar at 13%.
However, intra-day dynamics reveal growing volatility driven by renewables. Solar output declined by around 800 MW day-on-day, while wind increased by nearly 2,000 MW, creating shifting intraday price patterns and contributing to evening price spikes.
Cross-border flows remained a key driver. Hungary continued exporting strongly towards Serbia and Ukraine, while Romania and Bulgaria maintained significant exports into neighbouring markets, reinforcing their role as regional balancing hubs.
Commercial flow data shows persistent north-to-south and east-to-west patterns, with Romania exporting into Hungary and Serbia, and Bulgaria pushing volumes toward Greece and North Macedonia, underlining the increasingly interconnected nature of SEE power markets.
On the fuel side, bullish signals supported power prices. Austrian gas benchmark CEGH rose to €57.02/MWh (+€3.5), while EU carbon allowances (EUA Dec-26) continued their upward trajectory, reinforcing marginal cost pressure for thermal generation.
Forward power markets also reflected tightening expectations. Hungarian week-ahead contracts gained +18.09%, significantly outperforming Germany (+8.88%) and Italy (+3.38%), indicating stronger regional risk premiums and tighter anticipated balances.
Coal prices showed a mild correction, but remained elevated enough to keep lignite and coal-fired generation competitive within the regional merit order, particularly in Serbia and Bosnia.
Weather conditions played a secondary but relevant role. Temperatures across the region remained moderate, averaging around 8–10°C, limiting demand-side volatility but not offsetting supply-side tightening from renewable fluctuations.
Looking at structural signals, the region continues to exhibit a hybrid dependency model: increasing renewable penetration combined with sustained reliance on thermal and import-based balancing.
This is particularly visible in Serbia, where rising domestic demand and limited dispatchable flexibility continue to anchor the market at the lower end of the regional price curve, while still reacting strongly to external shocks.
At the same time, Hungary’s position as a regional pricing hub is being reinforced by both infrastructure and policy dynamics, including its growing solar base and parallel investments in flexible gas capacity.
The broader geopolitical backdrop also remains relevant. Ongoing tensions around gas transit routes and fuel supply security—particularly involving Hungary and Ukraine—are adding a layer of risk premium across forward curves, even if not yet fully reflected in spot prices.
Meanwhile, regulatory and structural developments, including CBAM-related pressure on electricity exports from the Western Balkans, are beginning to reshape trade flows, with early indications of reduced export volumes from Bosnia and increased regional self-consumption strategies.
In the short term, the market is likely to remain sensitive to renewable variability and cross-border flows. The combination of tightening supply, rising fuel costs and increasing system complexity suggests continued volatility, particularly during peak evening hours.
Price convergence with Central Europe remains partial at best, with structural congestion, generation mix differences and policy fragmentation continuing to define SEE as a distinct pricing zone within the broader European power market.