Day-ahead electricity prices across Southeast Europe and Hungary moved sharply higher on 26/3/26, with a pronounced split emerging between tightly balanced core markets and softer pricing in the western Balkans, as falling wind output and lower thermal generation tightened supply conditions.
Hungary’s HUPX day-ahead price surged to €133.6/MWh, up €26 day on day, with similar gains recorded in neighbouring markets. Croatia’s CROPEX rose to €130.8/MWh (+€25), while Slovenia’s BSP climbed to €122.4/MWh (+€14.8). Albania registered the steepest increase, with ALPEX jumping to €121.6/MWh, up €50 on the day.
In contrast, eastern and southern markets remained under pressure. Romania’s OPCOM fell to €87.6/MWh (-€9.3), Bulgaria’s IBEX eased to €84.8/MWh (-€2.5), while Serbia’s SEEPEX dropped further to €65.6/MWh, widening its discount to Hungarian prices to nearly €70/MWh.
The divergence reflects tightening fundamentals in Central Europe, where a combination of stronger demand and reduced dispatchable generation pushed marginal prices higher. Regional consumption rose to 34.5 GW, an increase of 1.8 GW day on day, while total generation fell by more than 1.6 GW.
Thermal output declined significantly, with gas-fired generation down 763 MW and coal output lower by 548 MW, while wind production dropped by 410 MW amid weaker weather conditions. Solar generation increased by more than 1 GW, but this was insufficient to offset the loss of flexible capacity, particularly during evening peak hours.
The tightening supply-demand balance was most visible in intraday price behaviour, with hourly prices in Hungary peaking above €270/MWh, while minimum prices during solar hours remained close to zero. The resulting spread highlights increasingly pronounced “duck curve” dynamics across the region.
Cross-border flows remained broadly stable, with net imports into the SEE and Hungarian region at around -457 MW, while inflows from Austria and Slovakia continued to exceed 1.9 GW. However, limited additional import capacity and congestion on key interconnectors prevented further balancing, reinforcing upward pressure on core market prices.
Despite the spot rally, fuel markets provided little support for the price increase. Austrian CEGH gas prices edged lower to around €53.5/MWh, while coal benchmarks softened and carbon prices continued their gradual upward trend. This suggests that current price formation is increasingly driven by system flexibility rather than input costs.
In the western Balkans, lower prices point to relatively more stable domestic generation, particularly from coal and hydro, as well as weaker exposure to regional price signals. However, the widening spread with Central European hubs underscores structural fragmentation and limited integration capacity.
Market participants said the latest session reflects a broader shift in SEE electricity trading, where short-term price formation is becoming more sensitive to renewable variability and the availability of flexible generation. With wind output declining and thermal capacity less responsive, balancing constraints are emerging more frequently, particularly during evening peaks.
Looking ahead, traders expect continued volatility, with elevated peak prices likely to persist if wind generation remains subdued and demand holds firm. The widening spreads between core and peripheral markets are also expected to sustain cross-border trading opportunities, although physical transmission limits will remain a key constraint.