Southeast European day-ahead power prices surged for Monday delivery, with Hungary and the northern Balkans approaching EUR 180/MWh as electricity demand recovered from the weekend and weaker wind generation tightened the regional supply-demand balance.
Hungary’s HUPX market recorded the highest price in the region at EUR 183.86/MWh, up EUR 45.9/MWh from Sunday. Slovenia followed at EUR 181.48/MWh, Austria at EUR 181.46/MWh, Croatia at EUR 180.63/MWh and Italy at EUR 179.30/MWh. Romania cleared at EUR 172.58/MWh, while Bulgaria reached EUR 169.90/MWh.
Further south, prices remained lower. Greece cleared at EUR 153.42/MWh, Albania at EUR 144.33/MWh, North Macedonia at EUR 151.23/MWh and Montenegro at EUR 168.22/MWh. Serbia remained the regional low at EUR 128.19/MWh.
The rally was broad-based across the region. Greek prices increased by EUR 48.4/MWh day on day, followed by North Macedonia with a EUR 48.3/MWh increase and Serbia with EUR 46.0/MWh. Hungary, Slovenia, Bulgaria and Croatia also recorded gains of between EUR 42.9/MWh and EUR 45.9/MWh.
The sharp increase reflected a substantially tighter regional physical balance following Sunday’s lower-load session. Combined electricity consumption across Hungary and southeast Europe rose to 30,974 MW, an increase of 4,206 MW from the previous day.
At the same time, the region shifted from a small net export position of 240 MW on Sunday to net imports of 1,107 MW for Monday delivery. Imports from the core European market through Austria and Slovakia increased to 1,405 MW, around 402 MW higher than a day earlier.
Renewable availability was mixed. Wind generation dropped sharply to 2,210 MW from 3,227 MW, removing more than 1 GW of relatively low-cost generation from the market. Hydro output also declined to 4,082 MW from 4,355 MW.
Solar generation increased by around 515 MW to 6,830 MW, but the additional photovoltaic output was insufficient to offset stronger demand and lower wind and hydro production. Coal-fired generation increased to 6,154 MW, while gas-fired output rose to 4,391 MW, pointing to greater reliance on thermal generation.
The tightening was particularly evident in Hungary’s day-ahead price curve. The HUPX base price rose to EUR 183.9/MWh from EUR 137.9/MWh on Sunday, while the peak contract jumped to EUR 181.4/MWh from EUR 101.6/MWh.
The minimum hourly price recorded an even stronger increase, reaching EUR 142.3/MWh compared with just EUR 27.3/MWh a day earlier. The maximum price rose more moderately to EUR 226.1/MWh from EUR 206.5/MWh.
This price structure suggests that Monday’s rally was driven less by an isolated evening scarcity event and more by broad upward repricing across the delivery day, including hours that had previously traded at much lower levels.
Northern SEE markets remained closely aligned with Hungary. Slovenia cleared at EUR 181.5/MWh, Croatia at EUR 180.6/MWh and Austria at EUR 181.5/MWh, while minimum prices across the markets were clustered around EUR 140-142/MWh.
The convergence points to a tightly coupled Hungary-Slovenia-Croatia-Austria price zone, while significantly wider spreads remained toward the southern Balkans. Hungary traded around EUR 11/MWh above Romania, EUR 14/MWh above Bulgaria, EUR 30/MWh above Greece and almost EUR 56/MWh above Serbia.
Serbia remained the region’s most significant price discount despite its strong day-on-day increase. SEEPEX settled at EUR 128.2/MWh, with a peak average of EUR 120.6/MWh, a minimum hourly price of EUR 62/MWh and a maximum of EUR 240/MWh.
The large Serbia-Hungary spread continues to indicate congestion and limited northbound transfer capability, rather than a fully integrated price response across the region.
Greece also remained structurally cheaper than the northern markets. HENEX averaged EUR 153.4/MWh, with a minimum hourly price of only EUR 28.4/MWh despite an off-peak average of EUR 183.1/MWh. Bulgaria, meanwhile, cleared considerably higher at EUR 169.9/MWh, with a minimum price of EUR 122.5/MWh.
Cross-border flows reflected the changing regional price structure. The HU+SEE region shifted to net imports of 1,107 MW, while exports toward Italy fell sharply to 281 MW from 1,364 MW on Sunday. Core imports from Austria and Slovakia increased to 1,405 MW.
The decline in exports toward Italy coincided with strong convergence between Italian and northern SEE prices. Italy’s national day-ahead price settled at EUR 179.3/MWh, only around EUR 4.6/MWh below Hungary, while the Italian peak price stood at around EUR 169.7/MWh.
Near-term fuel markets were comparatively stable and offered little explanation for the magnitude of the spot-market rally. CEGH gas was quoted at EUR 62.18/MWh, while EUA carbon allowances stood at around EUR 81.79/t.
Hungarian Week 34 power was assessed at EUR 156.50/MWh, Week 35 at EUR 160.50/MWh, September at EUR 161.50/MWh and Calendar 2026 at EUR 126.50/MWh. The HUPX day-ahead settlement therefore stood more than EUR 22/MWh above the September contract, highlighting that the current premium is concentrated in the short-term physical market rather than fully reflected further along the forward curve.
The regional market remains particularly sensitive to wind availability and weekday demand. Monday’s session combined a 4.2 GW increase in consumption with a drop of more than 1 GW in wind generation, while hydro output also weakened.
That combination pushed the HU+SEE system back into import dependence and lifted the broader northern SEE price structure.
The key market feature for the coming delivery sessions will be the widening divide between the EUR 180/MWh northern cluster around Hungary, Slovenia, Croatia and Austria and the substantially cheaper markets in Serbia, Albania, North Macedonia and Greece.
With HUPX’s daily minimum already above EUR 140/MWh, the market is showing signs of broad scarcity across the load curve, rather than a price pattern driven solely by the evening peak.