Day-ahead electricity prices across Southeast Europe and Hungary moved higher on Thursday, reversing the softer tone seen in parts of the southern region a day earlier, with Hungary once again setting the regional price ceiling amid strong evening ramp dynamics.
Hungary’s HUPX day-ahead baseload surged to €123.77/MWh, up €20.6/MWh day on day, marking the highest level across the region and reinforcing its role as the key marginal pricing hub. Elsewhere, prices clustered more tightly, with Romania and Bulgaria at €103.02/MWh, Serbia at €101.45/MWh, Greece at €101.23/MWh, and Albania at €99.78/MWh. Further north-west, Slovenia reached €116.39/MWh and Croatia €112.10/MWh, while Montenegro remained the lowest-priced market at €92.79/MWh.
The upward move comes despite only a modest increase in regional demand, with total consumption across SEE and Hungary forecast at 34,847 MW, slightly above Wednesday levels. Instead, the price rebound reflects a reshuffling of the generation mix and persistent reliance on imports, particularly during peak hours.
Wind generation provided the main incremental supply, rising sharply to 5,244 MW, an increase of 1,590 MW day on day, helping lift total generation to 36,010 MW. However, this was partly offset by weaker output from other sources, with gas-fired generation falling to 5,208 MW and solar declining to 3,161 MW, while hydro eased to 7,304 MW.
Despite the stronger renewable contribution, the region remained structurally import-dependent, with net imports deepening to -2,067 MW, compared with -1,255 MW the previous day. This indicates that while wind improved the supply outlook, it was insufficient to fully displace external flows.
Hungary’s premium over Germany narrowed but remained firmly positive, with the HU-DE spread tightening to €10/MWh from €14.2/MWh on Wednesday. This continues to support west-to-east flows, although imports from the CORE region dropped sharply to 200 MW, down from 1,350 MW a day earlier, suggesting a shift in the composition of cross-border balancing rather than a reduction in overall import needs.
Hourly price structures across the region underline the importance of evening system stress. Most markets recorded peak prices around hour 20, reflecting the typical post-solar ramp. In Serbia, SEEPEX prices ranged from a minimum of €35/MWh to a maximum of €175/MWh, while Hungary displayed significantly higher volatility, with prices spanning from €4.7/MWh at the low end to €254.1/MWh at the peak.
Forward markets remain broadly supportive of the current price structure. Hungarian weekly and monthly contracts continue to price in elevated levels, with Week 13 at €116.5/MWh, Week 14 at €99.5/MWh, and April-26 at €101/MWh, while the Cal-26 contract stands at €110.5/MWh. Forward spreads versus Germany also remain positive across the curve, indicating expectations of continued regional tightness.
On the fuel side, movements were relatively muted. CEGH gas prices edged up to €54.38/MWh, while EU carbon allowances slipped slightly to €65.87/t, offering limited directional impact on power pricing.
Across the region, structural developments continue to point toward increasing flexibility needs. Hungary is expanding battery storage capacity, with Alteo adding a new 10 MW unit, bringing its installed portfolio to 80 MW, while Romania is progressing new thermal capacity with multiple bids received for a 275 MW cogeneration plant. In Bulgaria, policy discussions around EU ETS participation highlight ongoing tensions between decarbonisation targets and industrial competitiveness.
The overall market picture remains one of controlled firmness rather than outright scarcity. Stronger wind output has improved supply conditions, but persistent import dependence and steep evening ramps continue to anchor prices at elevated levels. Hungary’s role as the marginal price-setter remains intact, with neighbouring SEE markets closely tracking its movements, particularly during peak hours.