Day-ahead electricity prices across Southeast Europe and Hungary rose sharply on Friday, driven by reduced renewable generation, tighter supply conditions, and bullish signals from Central European markets.
Hungary’s HUPX exchange led the regional rally, with baseload prices climbing to EUR 133.86/MWh, marking a day-on-day increase of nearly EUR 31. The upward trend spread across interconnected markets, highlighting strong price coupling and intensified cross-border trading activity.
Across Southeast Europe, Croatia and Slovenia followed closely, with prices reaching EUR 127.83/MWh on CROPEX and EUR 126.91/MWh on BSP. Romania’s OPCOM cleared at EUR 119.05/MWh, while Serbia’s SEEPEX recorded EUR 115.21/MWh, underscoring a synchronized regional market response. Bulgaria’s IBEX settled at EUR 111.99/MWh, while Greece’s HENEX remained comparatively lower at EUR 95.30/MWh.
Montenegro and Albania posted more moderate levels, with BELEN and ALPEX clearing at EUR 99.54/MWh and EUR 98.25/MWh, respectively. North Macedonia’s MEMO stood as the only outlier, slipping to EUR 84.23/MWh.
Renewable drop drives price rally
The price surge was primarily attributed to a decline in renewable output, particularly from wind and solar sources. Lower generation from these technologies increased reliance on conventional power plants, pushing marginal production costs higher across the region.
Total electricity demand across SEE and Hungary reached 29,389 MW, reflecting stable seasonal consumption patterns. Meanwhile, total generation amounted to 29,216 MW, indicating a balanced yet relatively tight system.
Hydropower remained the dominant source of electricity, accounting for 27% of total generation. Nuclear energy contributed 20%, followed by coal at 15%, solar at 14%, gas at 12%, and wind at 7%, while imports represented approximately 5% of supply.
Imports and regional flows support markets
Cross-border electricity flows continued to play a pivotal role in balancing the system. Net imports into the SEE and Hungarian region stood at 255 MW, reflecting tighter availability from neighboring markets and strong regional interdependence.
Market participants reported robust trading activity along key corridors linking Hungary, Romania, Serbia, and Bulgaria, reinforcing Southeast Europe’s integration with the wider European electricity market.
Fuel and carbon costs remain supportive
Power prices were further underpinned by firm fuel and carbon markets. Austrian CEGH gas traded at EUR 48.02/MWh, while EU carbon allowances stood at EUR 73.72 per tonne, maintaining upward pressure on thermal generation costs.
These fundamentals continued to shape marginal pricing, particularly in coal- and gas-dependent systems across the region.
Intraday volatility highlights market tightness
Intraday trading revealed heightened volatility, especially in Hungary. Prices on HUPX ranged from EUR 86.9/MWh to peaks of EUR 244.9/MWh, reflecting fluctuations in renewable output and evening demand spikes.
Such volatility underscores the increasing importance of flexible generation, energy storage, and cross-border interconnections in stabilizing regional markets.
Weather outlook
Weather forecasts indicate gradually rising temperatures across Southeast Europe in the coming days. Improved solar output may ease price pressures, although traders remain cautious due to ongoing variability in renewable generation.
Market outlook
Traders expect continued volatility in the near term, with prices closely aligned to Central European trends.
Bullish drivers:
• Reduced wind generation
• Elevated gas and carbon costs
• Tight regional supply
• Strong cross-border demand
Bearish factors:
• Increasing solar production
• Seasonal moderation in demand
• Improving weather conditions
• Potential growth in hydropower output
The latest developments confirm Southeast Europe’s deepening integration into the European power market, with Hungary continuing to act as a key pricing benchmark for the region.