Power prices across Southeast Europe and Hungary fell steeply on 25 March, with day-ahead markets retreating from earlier-week highs as a rapid increase in wind generation and softer demand pushed the system into oversupply.
Benchmark contracts across the region declined in tandem. Hungary’s HUPX cleared at €107.6/MWh (down €16.7 day on day), Romania’s OPCOM at €96.9/MWh (down €17.8), and Bulgaria’s IBEX at €87.3/MWh (down €23.3). Greece’s HENEX dropped to €78.9/MWh (down €30.1), while Serbia’s SEEPEX fell sharply to €71.7/MWh (down €41.4), marking one of the largest daily corrections in recent weeks.
The synchronized decline across markets indicates a broad regional repricing rather than isolated local factors, with price convergence tightening toward a €70–110/MWh range.
Wind output displaces gas from the margin
The primary driver of the downturn was a sharp increase in renewable generation, led by wind.
Wind output rose to 4,062 MW, up 1,427 MW day on day, significantly altering the merit order and displacing thermal generation. At the same time, gas-fired output dropped to 5,680 MW (down 1,035 MW), reducing its role as the marginal price-setting technology.
Solar generation edged lower to 3,436 MW (down 122 MW), but the overall renewable contribution increased due to the strength of wind. This shift compressed peak prices and flattened intraday spreads, particularly in Central Eastern and Balkan markets.
Coal generation also declined slightly to 7,152 MW (down 223 MW), while hydro output fell to 6,768 MW (down 274 MW), indicating that the price movement was primarily driven by wind rather than a broad increase in all renewable sources.
Demand softens as temperatures rise
Demand conditions reinforced the bearish pressure.
Total consumption fell to 32,902 MW, down 1,600 MW day on day, reflecting milder temperatures across the region, which averaged around 10–11°C.
Lower heating demand combined with higher wind output created a double impact on pricing, accelerating the downward move and reducing system tightness.
Imports decline as regional balance improves
Cross-border flows adjusted in response to improved regional supply.
Net imports fell to -550 MW (down 425 MW), while core imports from Austria and Slovakia into the region declined to 1,940 MW (down 172 MW).
This reduction indicates stronger internal generation adequacy and reduced reliance on higher-priced Central European markets.
At the same time, the Hungary–Germany spread widened to around €69.9/MWh, highlighting persistent structural divergence between Central Western and Southeast European markets, driven by congestion and differing generation mixes.
Gas markets ease but lose pricing influence
Gas prices softened slightly, with the Austrian CEGH benchmark at €55.5/MWh (down day on day)and Greek hub levels at €44.3/MWh (down).
However, the influence of gas on power pricing weakened materially as gas-fired generation was displaced by wind. This decoupling is typical during periods of high renewable penetration, when marginal pricing shifts away from thermal units.
Intraday volatility persists despite lower averages
While average prices declined, intraday profiles continue to show significant volatility.
Peak hourly prices in several markets still exceeded €180–260/MWh, while minimum prices approached €0/MWh in some zones, particularly those more closely linked to Central European flows.
This reflects ongoing structural imbalance within the day, with:
• Midday oversupply driven by renewables
• Evening ramp constraints maintaining peak pricing
Generation mix highlights transition dynamics
The regional generation mix on 25 March illustrates a system in transition:
• Coal: 22%
• Hydro: 21%
• Nuclear: 18%
• Gas: 17%
• Wind: 12%
• Solar: 10%
The rapid increase in wind output relative to gas underscores a shift toward more volatile price formation, where intermittent generation increasingly determines marginal pricing.
Flows reflect active regional balancing
Cross-border commercial flows remained dynamic, with strong exchanges across the Balkans, including:
• Romania exporting toward Hungary and Greece
• Bulgaria supplying Serbia and Greece
• Continued multi-directional balancing across interconnected SEE markets
This highlights a semi-integrated regional system where price convergence occurs, but remains sensitive to local constraints and weather-driven generation shifts.
Outlook: Bearish near-term with volatility intact
The near-term outlook remains bearish, contingent on renewable output.
If wind generation remains elevated and demand stays below ~34 GW, day-ahead prices are likely to stabilize within a €65–100/MWh range across core SEE markets.
However, intraday volatility is expected to persist, with continued divergence between low midday prices and elevated evening peaks.
The market structure increasingly reflects a shift from fuel-driven pricing toward weather-driven dynamics, where renewable variability plays a central role in setting short-term price direction.