The regional power market experienced a strong bullish correction on 5 June, with Central European markets rebounding sharply after the previous day’s low renewable output pricing event. Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Greece converged around €114.7/MWh, while Serbia remained the regional outlier at €86.8/MWh, maintaining a discount of approximately €28/MWh to HUPX.
Market overview
The strongest day-ahead price increase occurred in Hungary, where HUPX surged by €26.3/MWh to €114.92/MWh. Romania, Bulgaria and Greece moved almost identically to €114.7/MWh, reflecting strong market coupling and similar supply-demand fundamentals. Slovenia and Croatia followed at €108.8/MWh and €109.4/MWh, respectively. Albania remained the cheapest market at €70/MWh, while Montenegro traded at €105.3/MWh.
The key regional anomaly remained Serbia. SEEPEX cleared at only €86.78/MWh, significantly below neighboring coupled markets. This spread suggests continued domestic generation adequacy and lower marginal pricing pressure relative to the wider Central European region.
Fundamental drivers
Regional demand increased marginally to 28.46 GW, while average temperatures rose to 20.8°C. However, the major driver of pricing was a substantial deterioration in the renewable generation balance. Solar output dropped by 1.42 GW day-on-day, falling from 6.28 GW to 4.85 GW. Gas generation also declined sharply by 842 MW to 2.95 GW.
Wind partially compensated, rising by 444 MW to 2.32 GW, but the increase was insufficient to offset weaker solar production. Hydro generation also declined by 305 MW, reaching 6.18 GW.
The resulting generation mix consisted of:
- Hydro: 23%
- Solar: 18%
- Coal: 16%
- Nuclear: 13%
- Gas: 11%
- Wind: 8%
- Imports: 11%
This composition demonstrates that hydro remains the dominant marginal balancing technology across SEE despite increasing solar penetration.
Cross-border flows
Regional net imports fell dramatically to 1,951 MW, down by 1,088 MW from the previous day. Imports from CORE markets declined by 1,536 MW, falling to 2,604 MW.
The reduction in imports occurred simultaneously with the collapse of the Hungary-Germany spread from €27.2/MWh to €14.6/MWh, indicating lower arbitrage incentives between Western and Central Europe.
Commercial flow data continue to show Hungary as the major regional balancing hub. Significant exports were recorded:
- Romania → Hungary: approximately 787 MW peak
- Hungary → Croatia: approximately 571 MW peak
- Bulgaria → Romania: approximately 905 MW peak
- Serbia remains a major transit market between Bosnia, Montenegro and Hungary-linked corridors.
Intraday structure
Hourly curves reveal a classic early-summer renewable profile.
Midday prices remained heavily depressed between hours 12–16 as solar production peaked across the region. The daily minima occurred around 15:00 CET across nearly all markets. However, evening ramps were severe, with prices accelerating rapidly after 18:00 and reaching daily peaks between 21:00 and 22:00 CET.
Hungary reached a daily maximum of €181.8/MWh, Romania €179.0/MWh, Slovenia €171.8/MWh, and Croatia €172.8/MWh.
This widening solar-to-evening spread continues to strengthen the business case for battery storage throughout the region.
Fuel and carbon markets
Fuel markets remained generally soft:
- CEGH gas: €50.25/MWh, down €0.4/MWh
- EUA Dec-26: €77.07/t, down €1.5/t
- API2 coal Jul-26: $130/t, down $3.5/t
Despite weaker fuel and carbon pricing, electricity prices rose sharply due to renewable intermittency rather than fuel cost inflation.
Serbia focus
For Serbia specifically, several factors continue to support relative price weakness:
The country remains a net exporter for large portions of the day, while thermal availability remains robust. Regional imports into the wider SEE system decreased, reducing external pricing pressure. At the same time, domestic hydro and lignite generation continue to provide relatively low-cost supply compared with gas-dependent neighboring markets.
The €28/MWh discount to HUPX remains one of the largest observed in recent weeks and may attract additional cross-border trading activity should transmission capacity remain available.
Trading view
The market structure remains highly supportive for volatility-driven strategies. Solar production across the region is expected to recover over the weekend as temperatures rise toward 22–26°C across most SEE markets. However, the increasingly pronounced evening ramp continues to create substantial spreads between midday and peak evening hours.
For traders, the dominant themes remain:
- Strong evening scarcity pricing.
- Expanding battery arbitrage opportunities.
- Continued convergence among Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Greece.
- Persistent SEEPEX discount versus Central European benchmarks.
- Declining gas and carbon prices limiting forward curve upside.
- Hydro availability remaining the principal determinant of regional balance.
The combination of lower fuel costs, softer carbon prices and growing renewable penetration suggests that short-term volatility will increasingly be driven by hourly generation profiles and transmission constraints rather than traditional commodity fundamentals.