The regional power market moved into a more clearly bifurcated pattern on 19 June, with the northern and central European markets remaining structurally tight while Southeastern Europe benefited from stronger renewable generation, particularly solar and wind output. The result was a sharp divergence between Hungary and the southern Balkan markets.
Spot market overview
Hungary remained the highest-priced market in the region at €115.75/MWh, despite a substantial day-on-day decline of almost €18/MWh. Serbia stood out as the only major market moving sharply higher, with SEEPEX reaching €111.05/MWh, up almost €32/MWh from the previous day. Romania settled at €105.99/MWh, Slovenia at €105.52/MWh, Croatia at €103.98/MWh, while Bulgaria and Greece remained significantly lower at €81.88/MWh and €76.84/MWh respectively.
The pricing structure suggests that renewable production was increasingly suppressing prices in the southern markets, while congestion and localized balancing requirements continued supporting premiums in Serbia and Hungary.
Renewable generation driving market fundamentals
Regional electricity consumption increased to approximately 30.2 GW, while total generation rose even faster to 30.6 GW, transforming the region from a significant importer into a modest net exporter. Wind generation surged by more than 1.1 GW day-on-day, while solar generation increased by over 540 MW, highlighting the growing influence of weather-dependent generation on daily market formation.
The generation mix showed:
- Solar: 21%
- Hydro: 20%
- Nuclear: 17%
- Coal: 15%
- Gas: 14%
- Wind: 9%
Renewables therefore accounted for roughly half of total regional generation, increasingly defining intraday pricing behavior.
Hungary remains regional price setter
The Hungarian market continues to function as the principal price reference for the wider SEE region. The Hungary-Germany spread widened to €7.57/MWh, reversing the negative differential seen previously. At the same time, imports from Austria and Slovakia into Hungary shifted to positive territory, indicating renewed dependence on western flows during peak hours.
Forward markets remain notably bullish:
- Week 26 Hungary Baseload: €137.50/MWh
- Week 27: €128.50/MWh
- July 2026: €119.00/MWh
- Calendar 2026: €110.50/MWh
These forward values remain significantly above current spot levels in much of SEE, indicating that traders still expect tighter summer balances.
Serbia emerges as regional outlier
The most interesting development was Serbia’s pricing behavior. While most regional markets declined sharply, SEEPEX increased to €111/MWh. The market traded above Croatia, Bulgaria, Greece and Montenegro despite generally favorable renewable conditions across the region.
This reflects the structural reality increasingly visible across Serbia:
- Reduced flexibility following slowing approvals of new grid-connected renewable projects.
- Higher balancing costs.
- Greater dependence on imports during specific hours.
- Limited availability of new merchant renewable capacity.
The Serbian market increasingly exhibits localized scarcity pricing despite broader regional oversupply conditions.
Cross-border flows
Commercial flow data show continued strong exports from Central Europe toward Southeast Europe.
The largest observed average commercial movements included:
- Hungary → Austria approximately 705 MW
- Slovenia → Italy approximately 692 MW
- Hungary → Slovakia approximately 601 MW
- Romania → Hungary approximately 420 MW
The flow pattern confirms that Italy remains the premium destination market, attracting exports from Slovenia and neighboring systems whenever transmission capacity permits.
Fuel markets support lower power prices
Fundamental fuel indicators remained supportive for lower electricity prices.
Gas markets softened further:
- CEGH Austrian Gas: €42.21/MWh
- Greece gas benchmark: €40.07/MWh
Coal also continued declining:
- API2 July 2026: €110.5/t
- Q3 2026: €109.5/t
Meanwhile carbon allowances remained stable near:
- EUA Dec-2026: €80.01/t
The combination of weaker gas and coal pricing removes a major upward driver for summer electricity prices.
Storage and flexibility become central theme
Several developments reported in the daily bulletin underline a fundamental shift underway across SEE energy markets.
Bulgaria commissioned a 602 MWh battery energy storage facility in Burgas, developed by Solarpro and CATL. Romania commissioned another hybrid project combining 26 MW solar and 10.67 MWh battery storage. Greece meanwhile reported more than 4.5 GW of data center connection requests.
Taken together, these developments point toward the next phase of regional market evolution:
- Solar deployment is no longer the primary challenge.
- Grid flexibility and storage are becoming the critical bottlenecks.
- Data-center demand is emerging as a major source of future electricity consumption.
- Battery investments are increasingly viewed as trading and balancing assets rather than merely grid-support infrastructure.
Trading outlook
For traders, the market continues to display a classic summer pattern:
Strong solar output is suppressing midday prices across most markets, while evening ramps remain expensive. Intraday volatility remains elevated, creating growing value for battery operators and flexible generation assets. Hungary continues to act as the regional benchmark, but Serbia increasingly behaves as a separate premium zone driven by local balancing dynamics rather than broader regional fundamentals.
Looking into late June and early July, the combination of rising renewable output, lower gas prices, stable carbon costs and moderate temperatures suggests a generally bearish direction for average spot prices. However, evening peak spreads remain attractive for storage operators, while transmission congestion continues creating localized pricing opportunities across Serbia, Hungary and the Italian export corridor.