Electricity prices across South East Europe (SEE) declined markedly during Week 15 of 2026, as reduced demand over the Orthodox Easter period, increased solar output, and lower natural gas prices exerted broad downward pressure on regional markets. The week covering 06–12 April 2026 was characterized by synchronized bearish sentiment across most European power hubs, reflecting both seasonal and fundamental drivers.
Day-ahead electricity prices across the SEE region posted double-digit declines, reversing the tighter market conditions observed in the previous week. The steepest corrections were recorded in Bulgaria (-24.6%), Greece (-23.5%), and Romania (-22.8%), followed by Croatia (-20.3%), Serbia (-19.3%), and Hungary (-18.6%). Türkiye diverged from the broader regional trend, registering a significant increase of 28.9%, reflecting localized supply-demand dynamics.
Despite the widespread declines, price levels remained structurally elevated in several markets. Italyretained its position as the most expensive market in Southern Europe, with a weekly average of €119.89/MWh, followed by Hungary at €92.19/MWh and Serbia at €91.35/MWh. Prices in Romania (€88.01/MWh), Bulgaria (€86.02/MWh), Croatia (€85.09/MWh), and Greece (€84.69/MWh)remained below the €100/MWh threshold, while Türkiye recorded the lowest price at €24.89/MWh.
Regional electricity demand contracted significantly during the week, falling 6.77% week on week. The decline was driven primarily by reduced industrial and commercial consumption during the Orthodox Easter holiday. Greece recorded a drop of 13.9%, Serbia 12.9%, Bulgaria 12.6%, and Croatia 17.0%, underscoring the scale of the calendar-driven slowdown. Larger economies such as Italy and Romania also registered declines of 9.5% and 9.3%, respectively.
On the supply side, renewable energy output reshaped the generation mix. Total variable renewable generation fell 6.6%, but this masked a pronounced shift within the RES portfolio. Wind generation plunged 39.8%, particularly in Greece and Italy, while solar output surged 41.8%, supported by improved irradiance and longer daylight hours. Solar gains were especially strong in Türkiye, Greece, Hungary, and Italy, reflecting the seasonal transition toward summer generation patterns.
Hydropower output provided additional support, increasing 4.8% week on week. Greece and Italy led the recovery, while Romania continued to provide stable baseload support. Croatia recorded a significant rebound from a low base, whereas Serbia experienced a sharp decline in hydro generation. Overall, the increase in renewable and hydro output contributed to the downward pressure on wholesale electricity prices across the region.
Thermal generation declined in response to weaker demand and stronger renewable availability. Total thermal output in SEE fell 8.3%, with gas-fired generation dropping 12.0% and lignite and coal generation decreasing 3.9%. Greece, Romania, Hungary, Italy, and Serbia all recorded substantial reductions. In contrast, Türkiye increased thermal generation, primarily through higher gas-fired output, reinforcing its divergence from the broader regional trend.
Cross-border electricity flows softened during the week, declining 8.3%. Bulgaria significantly increased exports, while Romania transitioned from a marginal importer to a net exporter, supported by improved domestic generation. Italy remained the region’s largest structural importer, continuing to absorb surplus electricity from neighboring markets. Serbia’s near-balanced position indicated a normalization of regional flows.
Fuel markets further reinforced bearish sentiment. Dutch TTF natural gas futures averaged €47.68/MWh, marking a 6.2% week-on-week decline. Prices peaked at €53.25/MWh early in the week before falling to €43.64/MWh, reflecting subdued demand and relatively stable supply conditions. Lower gas costs translated into reduced marginal power generation costs, contributing directly to softer electricity prices across SEE.
Gas market fundamentals remained mixed. LNG inflows into Greece declined slightly, while Italy recorded a notable increase. Croatia also registered marginally lower inflows. Meanwhile, European storage sites entered the summer injection season, although inventory levels remained below historical averages, maintaining a degree of structural uncertainty in the broader energy outlook.
Trading volumes highlighted the dominance of major European exchanges. Italy led regional liquidity with approximately 19,690 GWh traded during the week, followed by Greece with 3,130 GWh, Bulgaria with 2,499 GWh, Hungary with 2,280 GWh, Romania with 1,150 GWh, and Croatia with 890 GWh, while Serbia recorded 120 GWh.
Looking ahead, early indications suggest a rebound in prices as demand normalizes following the holiday period. Day-ahead prices at the start of the subsequent week climbed above €125/MWh in several SEE markets, signalling renewed tightening in regional fundamentals and underscoring the continued volatility of interconnected European energy markets.
Overall, Week 15 reflected a temporary correction driven by seasonal demand patterns, strong solar generation, and easing fuel costs. While the short-term outlook remains sensitive to weather conditions, gas price movements, and geopolitical risks, the SEE region continues to exhibit structural interdependence with broader European energy markets, maintaining both volatility and trading opportunities for market participants.