The regional day-ahead market corrected sharply after the previous heat-driven price spike. HUPX fell to €100.96/MWh, down €36/MWh day on day, while SEEPEX Serbia settled at €104.92/MWh, down €32.5/MWh. Romania traded higher at €108.96/MWh, Albania at €112.91/MWh, while Slovenia and Croatia were weaker at €86.42/MWh and €91.45/MWh. The main outlier remained Italy, where the national price held at €139.37/MWh, only €2.7/MWh lower day on day, keeping Italy as the regional premium market. Germany was the clear low-price anchor at €59.54/MWh, widening the commercial logic for Core-to-SEE and SEE-to-Italy positioning.
The key price signal is not simply that prices fell, but that the regional shape became more spread-driven. The HU-DE spread narrowed to €41.42/MWh, but still remained wide enough to support imports from the Core area into Hungary and Slovenia. At the same time, the HU-GR spread was almost flat at -€0.95/MWh, meaning Greece and Hungary effectively converged on the day, while Italy kept a premium of roughly €38/MWh over HUPX. This keeps the Italian border structurally attractive where capacity is available, especially during evening scarcity hours.
The physical balance softened. Regional consumption fell to 32,895 MW, down 583 MW day on day, while total net imports also declined to 2,835 MW, down 747 MW. The region therefore needed less external power, but still relied materially on imports, with imports representing around 11% of the regional power balance. The generation side was weaker: hydro fell by 890 MW, gas by 901 MW, and solar by 814 MW, while coal was broadly stable at 6,064 MW and wind improved modestly to 1,777 MW. The mix was therefore more defensive than the headline price fall suggests: the correction came from lower demand and lower external price pressure, not from a strong domestic generation rebound.
Country balances show the stress points clearly. Romania remained a major net importer at 1,533 MW, despite generation of 4,593 MW against consumption of 6,126 MW. Hungary imported 1,210 MW, with domestic generation at 3,490 MW against consumption of 4,700 MW. Serbia also stayed short by 438 MW, with generation of 3,046 MW against consumption of 3,484 MW. By contrast, Bulgaria exported 909 MW, supported by nuclear and solar output, while Bosnia and Herzegovina exported 553 MW. Greece moved into a modest import position of 326 MW, despite still-high solar and gas output, reflecting demand of 7,397 MW.
The hourly profile is highly relevant for trading and storage. HUPX printed a daily minimum of €9.6/MWh at hour 14 and a maximum of €204.3/MWh at hour 19. Serbia’s curve was flatter but still valuable for intraday optimization, with a minimum of €46/MWh and maximum of €175/MWh, also at the evening peak. Germany and Austria showed the clearest solar depression, with Germany reaching -€5/MWh, while Italy retained a high floor, with a minimum of €117.3/MWh and maximum of €170.2/MWh. This confirms that the commercial value is concentrated in evening ramp exposure, not baseload direction alone.
The flow map supports that reading. The HU+SEE region was still a net importer from the Core area, with AT+SK > HU+SI flows at 3,797 MW, while the region exported 418 MW toward Italy and 554 MW toward Ukraine/Moldova. Internal Balkan flows also shifted, with MK+AL+BG > GR at 434 MW, showing Greece drawing regional support after earlier export-heavy days. For traders, this points to a corridor structure: low-price Core supply enters Hungary/Slovenia, part of the SEE system balances Romania, Serbia and Greece, while Italy remains the premium sink.
Forward markets did not fully follow the day-ahead correction. HU Week 28 traded at €111/MWh, while HU Week 29 rose to €146.5/MWh, up €5.5/MWh day on day and more than 22% over seven days. That is a strong warning that the market sees the spot sell-off as weather and flow-driven rather than a structural bearish turn. Gas also stayed elevated, with CEGH at €45.10/MWh, while EUA held near €79.45/t. The forward curve is therefore still pricing heat, import dependency and thermal marginality risk into the next delivery week.
For Serbia, the daily signal is mixed but important. SEEPEX at €104.92/MWh remained slightly above HUPX and well below Italy, with Serbia still importing 438 MW. Coal dominated the Serbian generation stack, with the previous-day mix showing around 76% coal, 20% hydro and 4% wind. The country’s short position was smaller than Romania’s or Hungary’s, but still enough to keep SEEPEX aligned with the higher Balkan cluster rather than the cheaper Austria/Germany zone. For Serbian wind, solar and BESS investors, the day reinforces the commercial case for flexible offtake, balancing services and evening capture rather than simple baseload merchant exposure.
The cleanest market read is that 3 July was a correction day, not a bearish reset. Spot prices fell hard across SEE and Hungary, but import dependency remained visible, Italy stayed structurally premium, evening scarcity still dominated hourly spreads, and HU Week 29 moved sharply higher. That combination keeps volatility, cross-border optionality and storage value firmly in the money.