Southeast European day-ahead electricity markets for Wednesday delivery showed a sharp geographical divergence, with Serbia posting the region’s highest wholesale price at €234.67/MWh. Greece and Albania fell to about €139/MWh and €136/MWh, respectively, as stronger renewable generation forecasts reshaped regional power balances and cross-border flows.
The spread widened even though the region’s aggregate supply position improved. Forecast net electricity imports across Hungary and Southeast Europe decreased by 814 MW to 2,104 MW while electricity consumption rose to 31,382 MW. The figures pointed to the role of renewable output, transmission capacity and generation location in shaping wholesale prices.
In the Serbian market, SEEPEX prices increased by €6.5/MWh from the previous day. Hungary’s HUPX was broadly stable at €223.94/MWh, while Romania’s OPCOM rose to €221.67/MWh. Slovenia’s BSP reached €222.15/MWh and Croatia’s CROPEX settled at €221.87/MWh.
Montenegro’s BELEN edged up to €209.17/MWh, while North Macedonia’s MEMO declined to €210.38/MWh. Southern markets moved in the opposite direction, with Greece’s HENEX dropping by €85.6/MWh to €138.95/MWh and Albania’s ALPEX falling by €76.8/MWh to €136.01/MWh. Bulgaria also weakened, with IBEX falling to €214.50/MWh.
The resulting Serbia–Greece price differential reached €95.72/MWh, while Serbia traded nearly €99/MWh above Albania. Hungary’s premium over Greece widened to €84.99/MWh after reversing near parity recorded one day earlier.
Greek exports rise as southern spot prices collapse
Greece was the main factor behind downward pressure on regional prices for Wednesday delivery. Forecast electricity generation increased to 7,002 MW from 5,488 MW the previous day, while domestic consumption fell to 5,293 MW. As a result, projected net electricity exports rose to 1,709 MW from 81 MW on Tuesday.
Commercial schedules indicated average Greek exports of about 962 MW to Bulgaria, 395 MW to North Macedonia and 274 MW to Albania. The additional southern supply coincided with lower daytime pricing in Greece, where the average peak-period price fell to €73.8/MWh from €204.1/MWh during off-peak hours. Greece’s minimum hourly price reached zero.
The export flow did not remove price differences with neighbouring markets. Bulgaria continued trading more than €75/MWh above Greece, indicating that additional cross-border transfers were not sufficient for price convergence.
For market participants, realised outcomes depend on transmission rights, capacity costs, scheduling arrangements and balancing exposure rather than exchange spreads alone.
Import needs persist in Serbia and Hungary despite regional supply gains
The improvement in regional electricity availability was supported by higher renewable generation forecasts across Hungary and Southeast Europe. Average solar output was projected to rise by about 1,945 MW to 4,053 MW, while wind generation was expected to increase by another 582 MW to 5,639 MW. Combined wind and solar output was forecast at almost 9.7 GW as regional generation increased to 29,278 MW from 28,226 MW the previous day.
The impact differed across countries. Serbia’s forecast electricity consumption increased to 3,866 MW while domestic generation was projected at 2,636 MW, lifting its import requirement to 1,230 MW from 1,027 MW on Tuesday. Imports were therefore expected to cover almost 32% of Serbian demand.
Hungary faced a larger import requirement as forecast consumption rose to 5,086 MW against domestic generation of 3,062 MW. Projected net imports were set at 2,024 MW, around 40% of demand.
Romania moved in the opposite direction by shifting from net imports of 114 MW on Tuesday to projected net exports of 555 MW on Wednesday. Commercial schedules showed Romanian deliveries into Hungary averaging about 1,009 MW.
Montenegro shows cross-border flexibility alongside forward market signals
Montenegro’s trading position highlighted cross-border flows in the region’s day-ahead outcomes. BELEN settled at €209.17/MWh, about €25.50/MWh below Serbia, while Montenegro was forecast to record a modest net electricity surplus of 36 MW.
Commercial schedules included average exports of around 204 MW from Montenegro to Serbia and imports projected from Italy and Albania of 164 MW and 92 MW respectively.
Forward markets continued signalling expensive supply conditions despite lower southern spot prices for Wednesday delivery. Hungarian week-43 baseload advanced by €20/MWh to €266/MWh and week-44 increased by €17/MWh to €257/MWh.
The Hungarian November 2026 contract rose by €7.50/MWh in the latest quoted session to €244.50/MWh, while comparable German November baseload traded at €199/MWh. Italian November electricity was quoted at €234.50/MWh.
Fuel and carbon signals were also cited as supportive of forward pricing levels: the Austrian CEGH gas reference advanced to €88.19/MWh and November gas forwards increased to €88.50/MWh while European carbon allowances remained around €88.05 per tonne despite a modest daily decline.
Bosnia outage risk and intraday price ranges for storage economics
An additional risk was identified in Bosnia and Herzegovina regarding the Ugljevik coal-fired power station expected to cease operations from October 15 due to continuing coal shortages and difficulties developing additional mining capacity. The country’s projected electricity export surplus was forecast to decline to 216 MW from 472 MW on Tuesday.
A prolonged interruption could increase import requirements within Bosnia and alter electricity availability across connected Western Balkan markets depending on replacement generation, contracted imports and outage duration.
The Wednesday price structure also showed wide intraday ranges across bidding zones relevant for balancing exposure and flexible assets. Greece hourly day-ahead prices ranged from zero to €245/MWh while Serbia recorded a minimum of €192/MWh and a maximum of €317/MWh; Montenegro ranged from about €140/MWh up to approximately €292/MWh.
The apparent range was noted as not directly transferable into achievable trading revenue without accounting for charging and discharging efficiency, network charges, operating restrictions, capacity availability and balancing costs.