Industrial electricity buyers in SEE are entering a more complicated procurement environment. Week 25 showed that average renewable output can rise while wholesale prices still increase, and that lower gas prices do not guarantee lower electricity costs. For large consumers, the old procurement logic of annual volumes and fixed prices is no longer enough.
The central issue is shape. A flat PPA may look attractive on paper, but the buyer’s real exposure depends on when the electricity is delivered. In Week 25, solar generation increased by 8.1%, helping the midday balance, while evening prices still rose sharply. Industrial buyers with high evening or continuous load profiles would not be fully protected by a solar-heavy pay-as-produced contract.
This is especially relevant for steel, aluminium, cement, chemicals, fertilizers, food processing and data-centre-style loads. These buyers need electricity that matches production schedules, not only annual green certificates. As price volatility concentrates in specific hours, procurement teams must focus on hourly allocation, balancing responsibility, imbalance costs and fallback supply.
The Serbian case is particularly relevant. SEEPEX rose 9.6% to €85.73/MWh, while Serbia shifted into modest net export. Domestic physical balance improved, but prices still moved higher due to regional market coupling. A Serbian industrial buyer therefore cannot assume that local generation conditions alone will determine electricity cost.
The next generation of PPAs will need more precise commercial design. Buyers will ask whether the supplier provides baseload, shaped, pay-as-produced or firmed electricity. They will need rules for imbalance settlement, curtailment, guarantees of origin, hourly metering and replacement power. For CBAM-exposed exporters, the electricity contract must also support audit-ready documentation of production-related electricity use.
This creates a new opportunity for suppliers. Those able to combine renewable generation, storage, balancing services and verified delivery will be able to sell a higher-value product. The market will move beyond generic green electricity toward structured supply.
Week 25 showed that electricity procurement is becoming a risk-management function rather than a simple purchasing exercise. Industrial buyers that adapt early will reduce volatility, strengthen export credibility and improve the bankability of long-term production planning.