Gas uncertainty raises concerns for Southeast Europe power prices ahead of winter

Southeast European power markets moved into the final part of September with lower electricity demand and sharply reduced gas-fired generation. The region remained exposed to changes in gas supply and import costs as winter approached. A weekly assessment also pointed to shifting generation patterns across the markets covered.

Across the markets tracked, gas-fired power output declined by 13.60% in the week to 20 September. The reduction lowered the immediate volume of gas required for electricity generation. The same report cited Norwegian maintenance and LNG availability as factors influencing the wider European gas market.

Country price and flow changes during the week

The exposure varied by country. Italy stayed the region’s highest-priced electricity market at €215.82/MWh while reducing gas-fired output. Greece increased net power exports as both its own gas generation and demand fell.

Hungary recorded a rise in its power price even as regional electricity consumption declined broadly. These developments were not presented as a single gas-to-power price link. The weekly picture reflected changing conditions across multiple supply and network variables.

Drivers beyond gas-fired generation

The report highlighted that renewable production, hydro output, thermal availability and cross-border capacity all moved during the week. It noted that gas becomes more consequential when other sources cannot meet demand at a lower cost. This interaction shaped how prices evolved across Southeast Europe.

For autumn, the key question was how quickly gas-fired plants could be called back as demand increases. Week 38 showed some relief in generation volumes, but it also indicated that lower demand did not guarantee lower prices in every Southeast European market.

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