European gas prices rose in the week to September 13, lifting the cost of dispatchable electricity generation across Southeast Europe. Dutch TTF gas futures averaged €77.99/MWh, up 8.5% week on week. The contract traded up to a weekly high of €82.05/MWh before easing to €79.52/MWh.
At a gas price of around €78/MWh, the fuel component for electricity from a modern combined-cycle gas turbine with approximately 55% efficiency is roughly €142/MWh. Carbon costs, operating expenses and plant margins add further costs on top of the fuel component. Wholesale electricity prices stayed within €155/MWh to €177/MWh across much of the region despite regional demand falling by 4.7%.
Country generation shifts and wholesale price moves
In Greece, gas-fired generation fell by 13.2%, contributing to an 11.6% decline in total thermal output. Lower domestic demand and stronger exports coincided with a 3.2% drop in the Greek wholesale price to €155.32/MWh. The market remained exposed to elevated gas costs during periods when renewable generation was weaker.
Elsewhere, Hungary increased thermal generation by 33.3%. Romania raised thermal output by 10.6%, while Bulgaria increased it by 17.6%. The additional conventional generation supported system adequacy while increasing electricity price exposure to gas and carbon costs.
LNG availability and flexibility during weaker renewables
Gas-fired power provides flexibility because plants can respond relatively quickly as wind and solar output changes. When European gas markets are tight, that flexibility becomes more costly, particularly during evening hours when solar generation declines while electricity demand can remain relatively high.
LNG inflows through Greece and Croatia improved physical gas availability during the week, but did not remove exposure to European hub prices. Imported LNG and pipeline gas remained closely linked to pricing conditions across the wider European market.
The region’s power markets showed double sensitivity as lower renewable output increased reliance on gas-fired generation and higher TTF prices raised the cost of each additional megawatt-hour produced from gas.
Elevated by Virtu.Energy