Cross-border electricity flows across South-East Europe (SEE) shifted decisively in Week 16, reinforcing the region’s transformation from a fragmented set of national markets into an increasingly integrated transit and balancing corridor linking Central Europe, the Balkans and the Mediterranean.
Total net imports across SEE declined by 13.11% week-on-week to 886 GWh, driven not by falling demand but by a sharp increase in export activity, which surged by more than 65%. Imports, by contrast, rose only marginally, signalling a structural rebalancing of flows within the region rather than a contraction in overall system activity.
At the centre of this shift was a reconfiguration of export positions among key SEE markets. Greece moved from a near-balanced position to a strong net exporter, recording a swing from approximately -7 GWh to over -120 GWh, marking the most pronounced change in the region. Bulgaria and Türkiye also strengthened their export profiles, reflecting improved generation availability—particularly from renewables—and favourable price spreads versus neighbouring markets.
Conversely, several traditional exporters saw their positions weaken. Croatia reduced its export volumes significantly, while Serbia transitioned from a marginal exporter to a net importer, reflecting tightening domestic supply conditions and increased reliance on imports to balance the system.
Italy, as expected, remained the dominant structural importer, increasing its already substantial net import position by over 5% to approximately 1,056 GWh. This reinforces Italy’s role as the primary demand sink in the region, consistently drawing power from surrounding markets and anchoring cross-border flow dynamics.
The underlying driver of these shifts lies in the interaction between generation variability and price differentials. As renewable output surged in certain markets—particularly wind generation in Greece and Türkiye—excess electricity was pushed into neighbouring systems. At the same time, countries experiencing renewable shortfalls or hydro declines increased imports, creating a highly dynamic flow environment.
The map of scheduled flows (page 13) illustrates a dense web of interconnections, with electricity moving across multiple corridors simultaneously. Key directional flows include northbound exports from Greece into the Balkans, east-west exchanges between Romania, Hungary and Serbia, and sustained inflows into Italy from Central European markets. These patterns highlight the increasing complexity of regional power movements and the growing importance of transmission infrastructure in enabling market integration.
One of the most significant structural developments is the emergence of SEE as a transit region, rather than merely a set of end-user markets. Electricity is increasingly flowing through the region, rather than simply being generated and consumed locally. This is particularly evident in the role of countries such as Bulgaria and Serbia, which are positioned at key junctions between major trading zones.
This shift has important implications for price formation. As cross-border flows intensify, local prices are becoming more sensitive to conditions in neighbouring markets. A shortage in Central Europe, for example, can quickly translate into higher prices in SEE, as power is redirected to higher-priced markets. Conversely, surplus generation in one part of SEE can depress prices across the region as exports increase.
The growing importance of interconnectors is central to this process. Transmission capacity is no longer merely a constraint; it is an active driver of market behaviour. Congestion on key corridors can create price separation, while unconstrained flows lead to convergence. In Week 16, the relatively strong alignment of prices across Central Europe suggests that interconnectors were operating efficiently, allowing price signals to propagate across borders.
However, this also introduces new risks. As markets become more interconnected, local systems are increasingly exposed to external shocks. A disruption in one part of the network—whether due to technical issues, weather events or geopolitical factors—can have cascading effects across the region. This was evident in previous periods of stress, and the underlying vulnerability remains.
From a trading perspective, the intensification of cross-border flows creates both opportunities and challenges. Arbitrage strategies based on price differentials remain viable, but the window for capturing these spreads is narrowing as markets become more efficient. At the same time, increased volatility in flows—driven by renewable variability—introduces additional uncertainty, requiring more sophisticated risk management approaches.
The role of balancing markets is also becoming more prominent. As power flows become more dynamic, system operators must manage real-time imbalances more actively. This is particularly important in SEE, where renewable penetration is increasing but flexibility resources—such as storage and demand response—remain limited.
Looking ahead, the importance of SEE as a transit and balancing hub is likely to grow further. Ongoing investments in interconnection capacity, including new high-voltage corridors linking the Balkans with Central Europe and Italy, will enhance the region’s ability to move power across long distances. This will further integrate SEE into the European energy market, reducing isolation and increasing liquidity.
At the same time, the increasing reliance on cross-border flows raises questions about system resilience. As countries depend more on imports during periods of scarcity, ensuring the reliability of interconnectors becomes critical. This may require additional investment in grid infrastructure, as well as coordinated planning among transmission system operators.
Week 16 thus marks another step in the structural evolution of the SEE power market. Cross-border flows are no longer a secondary feature; they are a central component of market dynamics, shaping prices, influencing generation decisions, and determining the balance between supply and demand across the region.