Electricity.Trade’s May 2026 market analysis highlights Croatia as one of the region’s most significant electricity import-dependent markets. The average day-ahead price on the CROPEX exchange climbed to €103.58/MWh, increasing 14.55% from April and 23.48% compared with May 2025. This placed Croatia above Bulgaria and Serbia, while keeping prices close to Hungary’s €106.51/MWh. However, the price increase was not accompanied by stronger exchange activity, as monthly traded volume declined to 877.24 GWh, down 3.97% month on month, although still 19.79% higher year on year.
The key market signal was Croatia’s growing reliance on imported electricity. Net imports reached 583.90 GWh in May, increasing 20.59% from April and representing 43.78% of the country’s electricity mix. Domestic generation consisted of 33.19% renewables, 22.83% hydropower and only 0.19% natural gas, leaving Croatia with limited thermal flexibility. With imports accounting for the largest share of supply, Croatian price formation became increasingly dependent on regional availability, cross-border capacity and neighbouring market conditions.
Croatia’s cross-border flows reflected its strategic position between Central Europe and the Western Balkans. The country imported electricity from Hungary and Slovenia, while exporting to Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia. This trading pattern shows Croatia functioning as a link between more liquid Central European markets and Balkan power systems. At the same time, the high level of imports increases exposure to transmission constraints, weather-driven generation changes and the availability of surplus electricity in neighbouring countries.
Hydropower conditions added further pressure to the Croatian market in May. Hydro generation declined by 21.17% compared with April, reducing one of the country’s most important sources of flexibility. Renewable output remained almost unchanged, increasing by only 0.13%, meaning Croatia did not experience the same renewable generation growth seen in markets such as Bulgaria, Romania and Greece. The combination of weaker hydro availability, limited thermal capacity and higher import needs contributed to the sharp increase in wholesale prices.
For electricity traders, Croatia is becoming a market where import requirements, cross-border spreads and liquidity conditions must be assessed together. While CROPEX continues to show long-term market growth through higher annual trading volumes, the monthly decline in activity during a period of elevated prices highlights the need for deeper liquidity. Electricity.Trade’s analysis positions Croatia as a premium-risk electricity market — one that benefits from strong regional connections but remains highly exposed when neighbouring supply tightens, making it an increasingly important market for monitoring the Hungary-Slovenia-Western Balkans trading corridor.