Serbia’s Finance Ministry projects the country’s economic exposure to the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) at approximately €140.2 million in 2026. Serbian exporters face growing requirements to document emissions while meeting price and delivery terms. The estimate is a projection, not a tax bill or recorded revenue, although CBAM rules could affect supplier costs and access to EU customers.
CBAM covers specified categories of goods imported into the EU. In 2025, imports recorded under the relevant carbon-border customs codes were worth €111.23 billion, measured by the border value of the goods, not the value of certificates due. That figure includes imports from exempt source countries; excluding those origins leaves about €94.74 billion of trade potentially relevant before product, importer and emissions tests.
Iron and steel accounted for €60.95 billion of EU imports covered by the codes in 2025, while aluminium represented €30.34 billion. Serbia is not a leading origin across the full import total, but its trade is concentrated in corridors linking Serbian producers and traders with several EU border and manufacturing markets. Its immediate exposure is narrower, covering metals, electricity and other products shipped from Serbia.
Serbian exports and projected exposure
The Finance Ministry estimates that more than 12% of Serbia’s exports to the EU are within CBAM’s scope. Around 1,000 companies exported to the EU in 2025 and could be directly affected, while more than 3,500 Serbian businesses are connected directly or indirectly to covered sectors. These industries account for around 4.5% of employment, extending compliance demands beyond a small group of large producers.
In the ministry’s baseline scenario, exposure reaches €161.4 million in 2029. The 2026 estimate comprises €89.1 million for steel and iron, €19.5 million for aluminium and €21.8 million for electricity. The calculations use a fixed 2025 trade structure, default emissions assumptions and a reference certificate price of €75.36; they are not invoices issued to Serbian companies.
Emissions evidence in supply contracts
EU importers and authorised CBAM declarants hold the formal reporting and certificate obligations, but related commercial costs may be passed back to Serbian mills through discounts or contract clauses. Costs could also reach processors, construction suppliers and manufacturers. Contract negotiations will partly depend on whether plants can demonstrate emissions below regulatory defaults, the amount of free-allocation relief remaining and the availability of lower-carbon goods from other suppliers.
EU buyers must submit their first annual declaration for imports made in 2026 and surrender the associated certificates by September 30, 2027. Serbian suppliers therefore need to provide product classifications, production data at installation level and emissions evidence early enough for buyers to price and contract shipments and complete verification work.
Plants that fail to provide the required information risk losing business even if their actual carbon performance is competitive. Lower-carbon production has commercial value only if emissions can be demonstrated, attributed to the correct shipment and accepted in the importer’s declaration. For Serbian exporters, the immediate test is whether individual steel, metalworking and power businesses can retain EU customers.
Elevated by CBAM by Clarion Engineer