Germany bought about €75 million of Serbian aluminium and aluminium articles in 2025, while Slovenia purchased €72 million, making the two countries Serbia’s largest directly recorded EU markets, according to customs-trade figures. As the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) brings emissions information into supplier specifications and price negotiations, Serbian exporters must account for product-level data alongside alloy, gauge and surface quality.
EU imports of Serbian aluminium and aluminium articles under HS76 were valued at $505.7 million, or about €448 million, in 2025. France was the third-largest listed market, at €64 million, followed by Croatia at €36 million and Romania at €35 million.
The product mix points to trade in processed metal as well as primary smelting. EU imports included about €149 million of Serbian aluminium plate, sheet and strip under HS7606, €79 million of containers under HS7612, around €62 million of other articles under HS7616 and about €41 million of profiles under HS7604. These country figures record customs-entry markets, not necessarily the factories that ultimately use the metal in construction systems, machinery or transport equipment.
Emissions information enters supplier negotiations
German and Slovenian processors may combine purchases and produce components for customers across several EU markets, meaning the customs destination may not identify the party setting commercial terms. Impol Seval, a major Serbian rolled-aluminium producer, reported about €89.7 million in export receipts in the first six months of 2025 and named Germany, Italy and France among its key markets. Its disclosures indicate export demand and domestic rolling capacity, but do not establish that specific shipments went to vehicles, aircraft or branded consumer packaging.
For EU purchasers, the aluminium cost passed through under CBAM depends on direct embedded emissions under current coverage, the production route, precursor inputs and verification. Electricity procurement remains relevant to plant competitiveness and broader buyer sustainability requirements, but indirect electricity emissions should not simply be added to the initial aluminium certificate calculation.
This distinction makes verified factory and batch data important, while suppliers also need to distinguish legal emissions reporting from voluntary low-carbon claims. A Serbian exporter may deal with a distributor bearing inventory risk and certificate exposure, while a separate manufacturing customer specifies the alloy and carbon information, according to the market context described in the trade data.
Serbia’s exposure estimate uses default emissions values
Serbia’s Ministry of Finance estimated the country’s CBAM exposure for aluminium at €19.5 million in 2026, projecting it to remain near that level through much of the projection period. The ministry said the estimate assumes 2025 exports remain fixed and uses default emissions values.
Actual obligations could differ considerably as transaction patterns, verified factory emissions and EU certificate prices change. The ministry’s model includes possible relief if EU authorities recognise carbon prices paid in Serbia, but recognition is not automatic.
Trade data indicate that suppliers able to allocate emissions to specific product batches, disclose consistently across trading entities, and demonstrate physical quality as well as documentary compliance may be better placed to maintain access to European manufacturing chains. Identifying which buyer or intermediary sets the commercial terms can be as important to exporters as knowing the customs destination. Evidence from contracts or the supply chain would be needed to identify specific end customers.
Elevated by CBAM by Clarion Engineer