Southeast European day-ahead power prices rose sharply on 28 October as lower renewable availability and reduced imports tightened supply despite little change in demand. Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Albania traded above €300/MWh, while Serbia moved close to that level. Greece remained substantially cheaper and increased its exports.
Romania posted the region’s highest day-ahead baseload price at €311.38/MWh, up €55.90/MWh from the previous session. Bulgaria followed at €305.56/MWh, Hungary at €303.34/MWh and Albania at €302.05/MWh. Serbia’s SEEPEX baseload price rose €51.00/MWh to €292.65/MWh.
Forecast electricity consumption across Hungary and Southeast Europe was 33,331 MW, just 44 MW higher day on day. Forecast solar availability fell by 862 MW and wind availability by 1,355 MW, removing more than 2.2 GW of renewable supply from the regional balance. The breadth of the price increases, alongside nearly unchanged demand, pointed to tighter supply rather than a demand shock.
Regional net imports slipped to 3,941 MW, including a 725 MW fall in the core inflow from Austria and Slovakia to 3,625 MW. Hungary and Southeast Europe were still importing almost 4 GW on average, with regional generation of about 29.4 GW against consumption above 33.3 GW. Wednesday’s trading therefore left the region with fewer inexpensive megawatt-hours from both domestic renewables and external supply, without a material rise in consumption.
Greek exports widen regional price divide
Greece was the main exception to the regional price surge. Its HEnEx day-ahead price increased only €7.70/MWh to €232.57/MWh, leaving it roughly €71/MWh below Hungary, €79/MWh below Romania and €60/MWh below Serbia. Greek generation was running well above domestic consumption.
Greece exported around 2,010 MW on average, up from 1,400 MW the previous day. Flows towards Bulgaria were particularly strong, sending lower-priced Greek electricity north into the tighter Bulgarian and wider Balkan system. The result was a pronounced geographical price divide: Greece was the low-price exporting zone; Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia and Montenegro occupied the middle; and Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Albania traded near or above €300/MWh.
Hungarian forward prices reflect tighter regional balance
In Hungary, the HUPX day-ahead price jumped €62.00/MWh to €303.34/MWh. Germany’s day-ahead price also rose sharply, gaining €94.10/MWh to €249.21/MWh. The Hungarian premium over Germany consequently narrowed to €54.13/MWh from more than €86/MWh a day earlier.
The increase extended beyond the immediate day-ahead session. Hungarian Week 45 power was assessed at €307/MWh, Week 46 at €297/MWh and November at €282.50/MWh. Week 46 gained €26/MWh in a day, indicating that traders were pricing continued regional tightness rather than treating Wednesday’s rise as an isolated hourly event.
Fuel markets provided limited evidence of a sudden increase in generation costs. Austrian CEGH gas eased slightly to €97.24/MWh, EU carbon allowances were broadly stable at €88.05/t, and November coal fell. The divergence pointed instead to the electricity balance, including renewable output, generation availability and cross-border flows, as the immediate source of pressure.
Serbian prices approach €300/MWh
Serbia moved back towards the €300/MWh level as SEEPEX day-ahead baseload settled at €292.65/MWh, up €51/MWh in one session. Its peak price reached €313/MWh, with an hourly maximum of €400/MWh. Even the daily minimum was €189/MWh, showing that elevated prices extended across the curve rather than being confined to one or two hours.
Serbia remained around €10.69/MWh cheaper than Hungary, a relatively small discount amid the wider Central and Eastern European tightening. It was also a substantial net importer, averaging roughly 1,192 MW of net imports against about 915 MW a day earlier. Regional flow data showed imports from several neighbouring systems and only limited northbound flows from Serbia towards Hungary.
Serbia’s ability to remain below HUPX pricing was increasingly dependent on available cross-border capacity and neighbouring supply. When those buffers tighten together, SEEPEX can move quickly towards Hungarian and Romanian prices. The higher Serbian import requirement was therefore part of the physical balance behind the day-ahead increase.
Montenegro carries flows between Italy and the Western Balkans
Montenegro remained among the region’s cheaper markets despite a substantial rise. BELEN increased €35.90/MWh to €266.41/MWh, almost €37/MWh below Hungary and about €26/MWh below Serbia. Its peak price reached €277.10/MWh, while the daily maximum touched €400/MWh.
Montenegro was almost physically balanced overall, but its gross cross-border flows were much larger than its net position suggested. It drew electricity from the western side of the system, including Italy, while sending substantial volumes towards Serbia and other Western Balkan markets. Those simultaneous flows made it a cross-border transit and arbitrage corridor linking Italy, the Adriatic and the tighter Western Balkan price zone, as well as a small national electricity market.
That transit role is set to become more important when TPP Pljevlja enters its planned maintenance outage from 31 October, reducing Montenegro’s domestic thermal buffer while regional prices are already elevated. The 28 October session showed that a simultaneous decline in wind and solar output, together with several hundred megawatts less import capability from Central Europe, can push much of Southeast Europe towards €300–€400/MWh without a major increase in demand. Alongside consumption, the relevant variables are renewable forecasts, AT-SK import flows, Serbian import dependence, Greek export availability and Montenegro’s thermal availability after the Pljevlja outage begins.