Stronger renewable generation forecasts pushed Tuesday day-ahead power prices lower across most Southeast European markets, led by Serbia, Greece and Hungary. Regional production increased and import requirements fell despite higher consumption. Albania was the main exception to the price decline.
Serbia’s SEEPEX baseload price fell €43.4/MWh to €241.69/MWh from €285.1/MWh a day earlier, while Hungary’s HUPX dropped €26.1/MWh to €241.30/MWh. Greece declined €33.7/MWh to €224.85/MWh, the lowest price among the region’s major markets. North Macedonia fell €25/MWh to €259.84/MWh but remained the most expensive Southeast European market.
Romania and Bulgaria retained premiums over Hungary. Romania’s OPCOM settled at €255.49/MWh, or €14.19/MWh above HUPX, while Bulgaria’s IBEX reached €254.58/MWh, a premium of €13.28/MWh. Monday’s extreme tightness in eastern Europe had eased, although congestion and generation risks continued to separate Romania and Bulgaria from cheaper markets to the west and south.
Higher regional generation reduces import requirements
Regional solar generation forecasts rose by almost 2 GW day on day to 4.26 GW, and forecast wind output increased by slightly more than 1 GW to 3.51 GW. Together, the gains added around 3 GW of lower-marginal-cost supply. Aggregate consumption across Hungary and Southeast Europe nevertheless climbed 626 MW to 32.94 GW.
Despite the demand increase, net regional imports fell 608 MW to 4.01 GW. Imports from the main Austrian and Slovak direction eased by 219 MW to about 4.38 GW. Regional generation reached around 28.9 GW, up from 27.7 GW on Monday, absorbing most of the consumption increase while reducing overall import dependence.
The regional balance also turned towards exports to Italy. Southeast Europe sent around 155 MW to Italy, compared with imports of roughly 400 MW a day earlier, a swing of more than 550 MW. Improved generation availability and stronger renewable supply, rather than weaker demand, accompanied Tuesday’s spot-price decline.
Serbian price falls despite larger import deficit
Serbia’s average consumption rose to around 4.21 GW from 4.05 GW, while generation edged down to about 3.27 GW. Its net import position consequently widened to approximately 935 MW from 722 MW a day earlier. SEEPEX still fell by more than €43/MWh as the wider Southeast European price structure weakened.
Commercial flows brought electricity into Serbia from Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia and Bulgaria. Serbia also supplied power northwards to Hungary during part of the day. The pattern showed the role of surrounding markets, alongside domestic supply and demand, in Serbian price formation.
SEEPEX peak electricity averaged €253.1/MWh, while off-peak power fell to €230.2/MWh. Hourly prices ranged from a low of €165.1/MWh to a maximum of €314.4/MWh. The Serbia-Hungary baseload spread narrowed to just €0.39/MWh, leaving the markets effectively at parity rather than at the material Serbian scarcity premium seen in some periods.
Montenegro discounts contrast with Albanian increase
Montenegro’s BELEN baseload price declined €8/MWh to €230.55/MWh, around €10.75/MWh below Hungary and more than €11/MWh below Serbia. Consumption averaged around 356 MW against generation of about 369 MW. That left a small net export position of around 13 MW after Montenegro had been a net importer the previous day.
BELEN peak prices averaged €233/MWh and off-peak prices €228.1/MWh. With domestic supply and demand close to balance, Montenegro traded much nearer Greece than the higher-priced Romanian, Bulgarian and North Macedonian markets. Albania, by contrast, moved from one of Monday’s cheaper markets into the upper part of the regional range.
Albania’s ALPEX rose €36.9/MWh to €251.67/MWh. Its hourly profile was volatile: peak prices averaged €221.8/MWh, off-peak prices reached €281.5/MWh, and prices ranged from €20/MWh to €400/MWh during the day. Across the core Southeast European markets, baseload prices ran from €224.85/MWh in Greece to €259.84/MWh in North Macedonia, a difference of around €35/MWh.
German discount persists as forward power strengthens
Germany’s day-ahead baseload price rose €38.5/MWh to €155.11/MWh as HUPX fell to €241.30/MWh. The Hungary-Germany spread narrowed by almost €65/MWh to €86.18/MWh, but still reflected severe limits on how much cheaper western European power could reach Hungary and Southeast Europe. Austria traded at €247.66/MWh and Italy at €246.67/MWh, both slightly above Hungary.
The price structure remained fragmented: Germany was substantially cheaper, Austria and northern Italy were near Southeast European levels, and Romania, Bulgaria and North Macedonia carried the highest premiums. Meanwhile, the fall in day-ahead prices did not weaken Hungarian forward power. Week 45 rose €6.5/MWh to €301/MWh, week 46 gained €5.5/MWh to €271/MWh, November increased €8/MWh to €280.50/MWh, and calendar 2026 added €4/MWh to €182/MWh.
November power remained almost €40/MWh above Tuesday’s HUPX spot settlement. Austrian CEGH gas rose €2.6/MWh to €97.71/MWh, Greek gas increased to €86.08/MWh, and EU carbon allowances gained €1.9/t to €88.19/t; November coal eased to €149.5/t. Expensive gas, firmer carbon prices and unresolved generation risks maintained a substantial premium in forward electricity prices.
Romania faced uncertainty over nuclear and hydropower availability, while low Danube levels affected the operating environment around Bulgaria’s Kozloduy. Those constraints remained important ahead of November, when solar production enters its seasonal decline. The Hungary-Germany differential, although sharply lower, remained above €86/MWh as constrained cross-border capacity continued to separate Southeast Europe from cheaper German supply.