Regional cross-border power transfers were a defining feature of Southeast Europe’s electricity market in Week 42, as national trade positions changed sharply. The shifts took place even though the region’s combined net import balance moved only slightly. Market figures were provided courtesy of Virtu.Energy’s analysis.
Combined net electricity imports rose 0.4% to 1,194.36 GWh, masking substantial changes across individual markets. Greece increased net exports by 143.88% to 198.49 GWh, while Serbia’s net imports climbed from 12.16 GWh to 96.58 GWh. Hungary’s imports grew 34.22% to 279.71 GWh, while Bulgaria’s exports fell 97.8% to 3.56 GWh.
Romania reduced net imports by 59.06% to 77.57 GWh, and Croatia cut its import requirement by 20.65% to 119.57 GWh. These shifts are playing an increasingly important role in the commercial value of electricity generation. Generators’ revenues can depend not only on domestic market conditions but also on whether cross-border capacity can carry electricity to a neighbouring market with higher prices.
Price differences persist across connected markets
The relationship between Greece and the northern Balkans was particularly evident in Week 42. Greek electricity was considerably cheaper than power in Bulgaria, Romania, Serbia and Hungary, while Greece increased its net exports. Despite those flows, large price spreads remained.
The persistence of the spreads indicates that the regional network could not fully arbitrage away price differences. For traders, this creates value in forecasting congestion and securing cross-border transmission capacity. For transmission system operators and policymakers, the spreads signal where network reinforcement could generate economic benefits.
The same market conditions matter for renewable developers. A wind or solar project in a structurally congested zone may face periods of low local prices even when neighbouring markets are expensive. Projects with access to stronger interconnection may be able to sell into a wider regional pool of prices.
Interconnections and storage shape regional trade
These considerations are particularly relevant to the Western Balkans. Serbia lies between Central Europe, Romania, Bulgaria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro and North Macedonia. The long-term value of its electricity market therefore depends not only on new domestic generation, but also on how efficiently power can be exchanged with neighbouring systems.
Montenegro has a similar strategic role: its transmission system gives the Western Balkans a direct connection to Italy through the subsea interconnector. The growing importance of cross-border trading also strengthens the commercial case for storage. Storage can reduce reliance on constrained interfaces during expensive hours and absorb imports or domestic renewable surpluses when market and network conditions are more favourable.
Week 42 showed why regional electricity analysis cannot be limited to national generation statistics. Serbia’s higher imports, Greece’s stronger exports and Bulgaria’s sharply reduced surplus were connected elements of the same regional balance. As renewable penetration increases, these relationships will become more dynamic, with the future SEE electricity market increasingly shaped by where and when electricity is produced, and whether transmission capacity is available to move it to the market willing to pay the highest price.