Hungary’s HUPX day-ahead price reached €326.57/MWh for Tuesday delivery, up €34.20/MWh. Serbia’s SEEPEX increased by €16.90/MWh to €317.08/MWh, while Montenegro’s BELEN rose by €18.50/MWh to €294.77/MWh. All three markets posted their highest daily averages in the seven-day comparison period ending October 20.
German day-ahead power fell by €12.80/MWh to €195.66/MWh, widening Hungary’s premium by €47/MWh to €130.91/MWh. The premium increase occurred alongside additional electricity scheduled into the region, while German prices remained lower than the Southeast European markets.
Romania’s day-ahead price rose to €307.24/MWh, North Macedonia to €306.44/MWh and Bulgaria to €299.98/MWh. Prices were lower farther west at €271.33/MWh in Croatia and €260.99/MWh in Slovenia. Greece increased to €247.82/MWh, while Albania fell about 9.1% to €255/MWh.
Wind output decline and higher demand lift import needs
Regional supply conditions were dominated by a steep reduction in wind generation across Hungary and Southeast Europe. Average wind output was forecast at 1,067 MW, down 1,847 MW or about 63% from the previous day. Solar generation was expected to rise by 411 MW to 5,534 MW, replacing less than a quarter of the lost wind output.
Average electricity demand was forecast to increase by 963 MW or 3.1% to 31,849 MW. With higher consumption and lower combined wind and solar output, requirements for other generation and imports increased by approximately 2,399 MW. Demand remaining after wind and solar rose from 22,849 MW to 25,248 MW, an increase of about 10.5%.
Regional net imports were scheduled to rise by 571 MW to 3,794 MW, equivalent to nearly 12% of forecast demand. Imports through the Austrian and Slovak interfaces increased by 173 MW to 3,571 MW, while net imports from Italy rose by 305 MW to 422 MW. A reduction of exports towards Ukraine and Moldova of 93 MW accounted for the remaining improvement in the external balance.
Romania shifts toward imports; Hungary remains exposed
Romania recorded the largest deterioration among the larger national markets in the delivery-day balance. Its position moved from net exports of 213 MW on Monday to projected net imports of 1,183 MW on Tuesday, a swing of 1,396 MW. Forecast generation dropped to 4,874 MW from 6,250 MW while demand increased by only 20 MW to 6,057 MW.
Imports were expected to cover approximately 19.5% of Romanian consumption. Scheduled Hungarian deliveries to Romania increased to 1,030 MW from 406 MW, while Bulgarian deliveries rose to 643 MW from 72 MW. Romania also reduced scheduled exports to Serbia to 168 MW compared with 278 MW the previous day.
Hungary faced stronger onward delivery demand while still relying on imports itself. Its projected net imports increased by 113 MW to 1,549 MW and covered approximately 31% of forecast domestic demand. Greece provided partial offsetting supply with projected net exports rising to 1,011 MW from 723 MW.
Scheduled deliveries from Greece towards Bulgaria, North Macedonia and Albania totaled a combined 1,170 MW. The Hungarian premium versus Greece widened to €78.75/MWh despite continued market separation shown in daily averages and commercial schedules. The available data did not specify which transmission constraints were binding during particular hours.
Serbia and Montenegro see higher prices despite different balances
Serbia showed how an improving national balance can coincide with rising wholesale prices on SEEPEX. Projected net imports fell by 217 MW to 1,009 MW as generation improved to 2,820 MW and demand increased modestly to 3,829 MW. Imports still represented approximately 26% of expected consumption.
Despite the smaller deficit, SEEPEX rose about 5.6%, leaving Serbia as the second-most expensive market behind Hungary on the daily comparison. Serbia’s spread versus Hungary changed as well: it traded roughly €7.80/MWh above Hungary on Monday but moved to a €9.49/MWh discount on Tuesday as Hungary’s price increase outpaced Serbia’s.
Commercial schedules indicated Serbia received electricity from several neighbouring markets while sending an average of 601 MW towards Hungary. Deliveries into Serbia included 421 MW from Bosnia and Herzegovina, 387 MW from Bulgaria, 355 MW from North Macedonia and 209 MW from Montenegro.
Montenegro showed a similar mix of domestic import needs and cross-border flows alongside its wholesale price move on BELEN. Projected net imports increased to 42 MW while scheduled imports from Italy rose to 399 MW from 316 MW. Montenegro also continued scheduling deliveries of 209 MW towards Serbia.
BELEN’s daily average remained €22.31/MWh below Serbia even as it rose by roughly 6.7%. The Italian interconnection therefore contributed electricity into Montenegro and supported wider regional trading on this delivery day without preventing Montenegro from participating in the broader rise across markets.
Hourly spreads and forward pricing show near-term repricing
The daily averages masked differences between delivery hours in several markets. Hungary’s hourly day-ahead maximum reached €451/MWh compared with €396.60/MWh on Monday; Serbia’s maximum rose to €450/MWh from €404/MWh; Montenegro’s maximum increased to €395/MWh from €360/MWh.
Off-peak blocks averaged higher than peak blocks in multiple markets: Hungarian off-peak averaged €347.80/MWh versus €305.40/MWh for the peak block on HUPX. Serbia showed a similar pattern at €326/MWh off-peak against €308.20/MWh peak.
Greece recorded a larger spread between standard blocks at €318.50/MWh off-peak versus €177.20/MWh during the standard peak block; its hourly minimum was €32.90/MWh and maximum reached €396.10/MWh.
Albania’s daily average fell but its highest hourly price increased to €490/MWh, the highest among the listed markets; its hourly range extended from €100/MWh to €490/MWh.
The forward curve also reflected stronger Hungarian pricing relative to Germany for nearby delivery periods as of October 19 trading data for week contracts and months listed in the report.
Hungarian week-44 power increased by €7.50/MWh to €270/MWh while the corresponding German contract fell by €10/MWh to €174.50/MWh, widening the Hungarian premium by €17.50/MWh to €95.50/MWh.
Hungarian November power rose by €3.50/MWh to €250/MWh against an unchanged German November price of €191.50/MWh for a spread of €58.50/MWh.
The near-term strength was concentrated further along the curve: Hungarian first-quarter-2027 baseload eased by €1.50/MWh to €222/MWh while calendar-2027 remained at €170/MWh.
Gas and carbon costs; nuclear availability risk in Romania
Austrian CEGH gas was quoted at €90.70/MWh up by €1.10/MWh while EU carbon allowances were around €85.40 per tonne. These levels left gas-fired replacement generation exposed to fuel and emissions costs when renewable output is unavailable.
The report also flagged supply risk linked to Romanian nuclear availability based on latest generation figures showing no Romanian nuclear output at that time.
Nuclearelectrica’s revised financial plan assumed both Cernavoda reactors would return on November 1, which remained a planning assumption within the dataset used for this assessment.
The shift in Romania’s balance—from a modest export surplus toward imports approaching one-fifth of demand—was reflected in Tuesday schedules that helped cover shortfalls while buyers still faced a Hungarian premium versus Germany of more than €130/MWh.