Day-ahead electricity prices across Southeast Europe rose sharply on Monday, Oct. 19, with Serbia’s SEEPEX clearing above €300/MWh. Serbia’s market settled at €300.22/MWh, while Greece remained the lowest-priced SEE market at €232.43/MWh. The repricing followed the return of weekday demand alongside weaker renewable forecasts and continued heavy import needs.
SEEPEX was the region’s highest-priced market at €300.22/MWh, up €46.3/MWh from Sunday. Hungary’s HUPX followed at €292.39/MWh, an increase of €36.4/MWh. Romania reached €281.07/MWh, Bulgaria €279.48/MWh, Albania €280.60/MWh, North Macedonia €277.18/MWh and Montenegro €276.23/MWh.
Croatia settled at €260.47/MWh and Slovenia at €254.49/MWh. Greece remained cheapest at €232.43/MWh despite a daily increase of €51.7/MWh. Price gains were broad across major SEE day-ahead markets after the weekend, ranging from about €36/MWh in Hungary to nearly €58/MWh in Albania.
Demand rebound and higher imports tighten the regional balance
The main factor cited for Monday’s move was a recovery in electricity demand during the weekday period. Combined Hungary and SEE consumption was forecast at 31,426 MW, almost 3 GW higher than Sunday. At the same time, regional net imports increased by 635 MW to 3,525 MW, indicating that additional domestic generation did not fully cover the load increase.
Renewable output provided limited support to balance conditions. Solar generation was forecast at 3,800 MW, down 677 MW day on day, while wind was expected at 2,412 MW, down 42 MW. Imports from core Central European markets reached 3,431 MW, up another 132 MW from Sunday.
Balance figures showed consumption rising from 28,454 MW on Sunday to 31,426 MW on Monday, while imports increased from 2,889 MW to 3,525 MW. Sunday generation totaled 25,565 MW, including hydro at 3,236 MW, coal at 6,763 MW, gas at 4,796 MW, wind at 2,455 MW and solar at 4,478 MW.
Serbia’s premium versus HUPX and intraday scarcity profile
The strongest pricing signal came from Serbia’s SEEPEX market. SEEPEX traded at €300.22/MWh versus HUPX at €292.39/MWh, a spread of €7.83/MWh. It also ran around €68/MWh above Greece and almost €92/MWh above Germany.
Serbia’s own system improved versus Sunday but remained within a wider regional squeeze. Consumption increased to 3,871 MW from 3,629 MW, while generation recovered to 2,650 MW from 2,180 MW. Despite the improvement, Serbia stayed a substantial net importer at about 1,221 MW on average.
The hourly pattern also showed tighter conditions for market participants managing flexibility and balancing needs. SEEPEX fell to a daily minimum of €185/MWh around H14 before rising to a maximum of €404/MWh at H19. Peak-load electricity averaged €297.7/MWh, while off-peak power averaged €302.7/MWh.
The same regional pricing shape appeared in Montenegro’s market data as well. BELEN increased by €39.6/MWh to settle at €276.23/MWh, with an hourly maximum reaching €360/MWh. The minimum price remained relatively elevated at €210/MWh.
Greece and Albania show wider intraday swings while Hungary-Germany spread stays wide
Greece reflected more volatile intraday power economics through HENEX trading data. HENEX averaged €232.43/MWh—almost €60 below HUPX—while the hourly range extended from just €2.8/MWh to €375.8/MWh, with the minimum during daytime and the maximum arriving at H21.
The Greek peak-load/off-peak structure differed from other hours recorded for the day: peak-load prices averaged €171.6/MWh compared with off-peak prices averaging €293.2/MWh. Albania showed a similarly extreme evening signal, with its maximum price reaching €449/MWh, while its daily average stood at €280.60/MWh.
The cross-border constraint indicator highlighted in the data remained the Hungary-Germany spread for day-ahead power markets. German day-ahead electricity settled at €208.44/MWh, compared with HUPX at €292.39/MWh, leaving Hungary with a premium of €83.96/MWh. The spread widened by €3.2/MWh from Sunday despite more than 3.4 GW of core imports into the Hungary-SEE region.
Austria traded at €236.72/MWh and Italy at €262.63/MWh in day-ahead settlements referenced for the same period. Forward pricing showed expectations that extreme spot conditions would moderate rather than disappear: Hungarian Week 43 power was quoted at €268/MWh, Week 44 at €262.50/MWh and November at €246.50/MWh.
The forward Hungary-Germany spread remained wide at €92/MWh for Week 43, €78/MWh for Week 44, and €55/MWh for November. Fuel and carbon prices were also cited as keeping thermal marginal costs elevated: Austrian CEGH gas stood at €89.56/MWh and November gas at €89/MWh; EUA carbon allowances were quoted at €85.41/tonne; November coal was listed at €152.5/tonne.
The Oct. 19 market data therefore reflected higher weekday demand translating into higher imports and triple-digit premiums over Germany in the Hungary segment of the curve alongside deep intraday swings in renewable-heavy markets such as Greece and Albania.