On 13 October, Southeast European electricity markets remained under price pressure for delivery, with Serbia recording the highest day-ahead price among the regional contracts covered. The day-ahead premium between Hungary and Germany widened, while import dependence persisted across several markets.
Serbia’s SEEPEX day-ahead baseload price reached €228.17/MWh, down €2.60 from the previous session. Hungary’s HUPX benchmark fell €11.90 to €223/MWh, while Montenegro’s BELEN settled at €206.40/MWh. Greece and Bulgaria traded at around €224.60/MWh, keeping high price levels across the region despite declines in some markets.
Germany saw the largest single-day movement, with day-ahead electricity prices falling €37 to €160.23/MWh. That move widened Hungary’s premium over Germany to €62.78/MWh, up €25.10 from the prior comparison. Cross-border imports continued to support regional supply even as prices remained separated between Germany and more expensive eastern European markets.
Demand-supply balance and generation outlook
For Tuesday, electricity consumption across Hungary and Southeast Europe was forecast to rise by 858 MW to 31,194 MW. Net regional imports were expected to decline by 732 MW to 2,946 MW. The combination of higher demand and lower imports pointed to a larger role for regional generation, without bringing Southeast European prices closer to German levels.
Regional electricity production was projected to increase from 26,659 MW to 28,249 MW, a gain of 1,590 MW. Wind generation was forecast to rise by 1,458 MW to 4,316 MW, partly offsetting a 978 MW decline in solar output to 2,685 MW. The outlook indicated that stronger renewables could reduce import dependence without necessarily removing the regional price premium.
Import dependence and national market balances
Serbia remained among the most import-dependent markets in absolute terms, with consumption forecast at 3,728 MW against domestic generation of 2,699 MW. That left net imports of approximately 1,029 MW. Hungary faced a larger deficit of 1,570 MW, while Bosnia and Herzegovina was expected to export 478 MW.
Montenegro shifted from near balance on Monday to a small net export of 23 MW on Tuesday. Romania’s electricity balance improved as forecast net imports fell from 1,190 MW to just 253 MW while domestic generation increased to almost 6,000 MW. Bulgaria moved in the opposite direction, switching from a marginal net export of 9 MW to imports of 277 MW.
Greece’s export surplus contracted from 585 MW to 168 MW. Despite Romania’s improvement, both reactors at the Cernavodă nuclear power plant were expected to remain unavailable until at least 21 October due to exceptionally low Danube water levels. With nuclear generation absent from the reported Romanian mix, the country relied more on hydropower, wind, gas and imported electricity.
Exchange prices and intraday volatility
Price changes across exchanges were uneven: Romania’s OPCOM benchmark declined to €218.37/MWh. Croatia and Slovenia fell to €214.46/MWh and €212.83/MWh respectively. North Macedonia’s MEMO rose €17.40 to €215.84/MWh, while Greece gained €6.50 to €224.57/MWh.
Intraday profiles also showed volatility in both Serbia and Hungary. Serbia’s hourly SEEPEX price reached €320/MWh during hour eight after a minimum of €165/MWh in hour two. Hungary recorded a peak of €284.30/MWh during hour eight with a lowest hourly price of €164.40/MWh.
In both markets, average off-peak prices exceeded average peak prices, reflecting morning and evening supply conditions relative to midday trading periods. Italy showed internal market fragmentation as the southern bidding zone averaged just €148.20/MWh including one hour at zero, while northern Italy averaged approximately €224.60/MWh.
Forward contracts and fuel-carbon drivers
Forward electricity markets provided limited indication of a sustained near-term correction based on traded levels for Hungarian contracts. Hungarian week 43 baseload traded at €246/MWh while week 44 rose €15.50 to €240/MWh. The November Hungarian contract increased to €237/MWh.
The November Hungarian contract maintained a €44/MWh premium over the equivalent German November contract priced at €193/MWh. The German-Hungarian week 43 spread stood at €52.50/MWh. Fuel and carbon costs were cited as reinforcing pressure on forward electricity prices.
The Austrian CEGH gas benchmark increased by €4.50 to €85.27/MWh, while EU carbon allowances rose by €1.40 to €88.34 per tonne. Higher gas and emissions costs supported expensive thermal generation when renewable output and imports could not fully cover regional demand.
The October 13 balance reflected the continued tension between reduced imports from stronger regional production and persistent price levels above €200/MWh across most exchanges covered in the data set.