Romanian generation fell to around 2.9 GW on the evening of Oct. 3 while instantaneous imports approached 3.4 GW. Cross-border inflows were therefore close to Transelectrica’s estimated maximum import capability of around 4 GW, leaving a margin of roughly 600 MW. The supply balance tightened further on Oct. 5 after unit 5 at the Turceni lignite plant tripped following a boiler failure.
Turceni outage and reduced domestic coal output
The tripped unit is a 285 MW block, which was Turceni’s only operational unit at the time. The unit is provisionally expected to return on Oct. 10. After the outage, Romanian coal generation fell below 350 MW.
The Turceni failure occurred during an already difficult period for the power system. Nuclear availability has been constrained, hydropower output remains weak, and solar generation disappears rapidly during the evening peak. Wind production has also been volatile.
Dependence on cross-border imports during evening peaks
With domestic renewable output weakening, Romania becomes increasingly dependent on Bulgaria, Hungary and other neighbouring markets. Imports act as a safety valve, but their effectiveness depends on both available cross-border capacity and generation availability elsewhere in Southeast Europe. Regional prices above €200/MWh indicate tightening conditions in neighbouring markets.
Romania’s immediate exposure is linked to whether enough power can be imported during a narrow group of evening hours when domestic generation is lowest and regional demand is highest. The Turceni outage reduces that import margin during the period when it matters most for balancing supply and demand.