On Sept. 25, Southeast European day-ahead electricity prices stayed elevated as wind generation fell sharply and regional balances tightened, increasing reliance on imports. Most markets cleared above €200/MWh, with Albania leading at €223.92/MWh. Hungary’s premium to Germany also narrowed during the session.
Albania cleared at €223.92/MWh, followed by Romania at €219.85/MWh and Hungary at €219.62/MWh. Bulgaria settled at €216.50/MWh, Greece at €213.62/MWh, North Macedonia at €211.32/MWh, Serbia at €207.90/MWh and Croatia at €205.84/MWh. Montenegro remained below the regional cluster at €190.98/MWh.
Price changes across the region were uneven. HUPX fell by €19.70/MWh and Romania dropped by €12.70/MWh, while Greece rose by €38/MWh. Serbia gained €20.20/MWh, North Macedonia increased by €15/MWh and Albania added €13/MWh.
Generation balance tightens as wind output drops
Regional demand and generation moved in opposite directions, worsening the generation balance. Electricity consumption across Hungary and SEE increased to around 29.94 GW, while generation declined by more than 1.2 GW versus the previous day. Net imports rose by 886 MW to 3.57 GW, with imports from the Central European core increasing by more than 500 MW to 2.73 GW.
Wind output drove most of the tightening, with regional wind generation dropping by almost 1.6 GW to 2.14 GW. That represented a decline of more than 40% in a single session, while solar generation eased to around 5.27 GW. Dispatchable plants increased output but did not fully offset the renewable shortfall.
Gas-fired generation rose by about 330 MW to 4.43 GW, and hydro increased by around 210 MW to 3.72 GW. Coal production was little changed and nuclear generation remained broadly stable.
Hungary-Germany spread narrows while imports remain required
The tightening occurred alongside a narrowing of the Hungary-Germany differential in day-ahead prices. German power rose to around €176.63/MWh, while HUPX declined to €219.62/MWh. The Hungarian premium fell to about €43/MWh, from more than €100/MWh a day earlier.
The reduced spread lowered the immediate price incentive for west-to-east trading but did not remove SEE’s physical need for imports. Hungary remained structurally short, with consumption of about 4.74 GW against domestic generation of roughly 3.39 GW, implying net imports of approximately 1.35 GW. Hungary also continued to function as both an importing market and a transit point for regional flows.
National deficits shift import needs across SEE
Romania recorded one of the largest deficits, with consumption reaching around 5.70 GW. Generation fell to 4.13 GW, widening net imports to about 1.57 GW, up from just under 1 GW a day earlier. The Romanian deficit kept OPCOM closely aligned with HUPX, with only around €0.23/MWh separating the two markets.
Greece also moved toward imports as its balance tightened sharply. The system shifted from an average net export position of around 452 MW to net imports of approximately 228 MW, while generation dropped by almost 800 MW to about 5.14 GW. The tighter balance coincided with the strongest day-on-day price increase in the region, lifting HENEX to €213.62/MWh.
Serbia remained a net importer but improved its physical position, with consumption rising to around 3.48 GW. Generation increased to approximately 2.95 GW, narrowing average net imports to 531 MW from 628 MW the previous day. Despite that, SEEPEX rose to €207.90/MWh, about €11.70/MWh below HUPX.
Bulgaria stayed among the region’s exporting systems, but its average exports fell sharply to around 706 MW. Exports were down from more than 1.5 GW a day earlier as domestic consumption increased and generation declined, reducing surplus availability for neighbouring markets.
The Sept. 25 session underscored how renewable volatility affects short-term SEE pricing outcomes tied to cross-border flows. A fall of almost 1.6 GW in wind output increased cross-border import requirements even as gas and hydro generation were stronger.
With Romania and Hungary running large structural deficits and Greece returning into imports, regional prices remained exposed to further weak-wind periods on top of the already tight physical balance across SEE.