Serbia’s recent electricity-price discount to Hungary has nearly vanished, with SEEPEX rising to €195.99/MWh and HUPX falling to €198.98/MWh. The resulting cross-border spread compressed to €2.99/MWh. Two days earlier, Serbian power traded around €41/MWh below Hungary.
SEEPEX increased by around €18.2/MWh for Sept. 23 delivery. The change was linked particularly to expensive off-peak hours, with the Serbian off-peak average reaching roughly €211.8/MWh while the peak block eased. This produced an unusual price structure in which off-peak power, normally cheaper than peak, became more expensive during tight overnight or early-morning supply periods.
Cross-border spread and implications for trading
The Serbia-Hungary spread is commercially relevant because the two markets are directly connected and HUPX is one of the principal regional price references for Serbian traders. When Serbian electricity trades substantially below Hungary, available cross-border capacity can create export value. At a spread of only €3/MWh, much of that opportunity is reduced after transmission costs and trading expenses.
The convergence also reflects limits in assuming Serbia will systematically trade below EU market levels. Serbia has substantial coal and hydro generation alongside rapidly growing wind and solar capacity, but its electricity balance can shift based on plant availability, hydrology and demand. Hungary faces similar volatility, including because its more than 8 GW of solar creates large daytime surpluses but limited evening flexibility.
Flexible assets and planned market coupling
The developments highlight the role of flexible resources in responding to changing hourly and geographic price differences. Batteries, hydro reservoirs and cross-border trading portfolios can adjust to price moves across locations and time periods. Traditional baseload strategies become less effective when regional price relationships change quickly.
Serbia is targeting deeper European electricity-market integration and eventual market coupling around 2028. Coupling is expected to allocate cross-border capacity more efficiently and reduce some persistent price differences, while not eliminating scarcity or congestion. Even with coupled European markets, prices can diverge sharply when transmission capacity is fully used.
The Sept. 23 market shows Serbia and Hungary effectively trading at the same baseload price after being separated by more than €40/MWh only two days earlier.