Electricity prices across much of Southeast Europe rose sharply on 13 August 2026, as stronger regional demand and pronounced evening scarcity outweighed higher renewable generation.
The Hungarian day-ahead baseload price increased by €18.80/MWh to €163.69/MWh, while Romania followed at €163.54/MWh, leaving a narrow spread of just €0.15/MWh. Slovenia and Croatia also traded close to those levels, reaching €165.65/MWh and €164.83/MWh, respectively.
Serbia recorded the largest daily increase in the region, with the SEEPEX price rising by €43.60/MWh to €157.20/MWh. Bulgaria advanced by €12.70/MWh to €138.29/MWh, while Germany and Austria reached €147.07/MWh and €161.55/MWh, respectively.
Italy remained the most expensive market in the report, with its national price rising to €183.80/MWh, a premium of €20.11/MWh over Hungary.
Southern markets moved in the opposite direction. Greece recorded an €8.70/MWh decline to €95.81/MWh, widening its discount to Hungary to €67.89/MWh. North Macedonia fell to €128.53/MWh, Albania to €146.65/MWh, while Montenegro was broadly stable at €141.97/MWh.
Hungary highlights growing evening price risk
The Hungarian market showed a particularly wide intraday price range. The HUPX price fell to a daily low of €83.50/MWh at hour 14, when solar generation was strongest, before climbing to €338.90/MWh at hour 21.
The resulting €255.40/MWh daily spread highlights the increasing importance of hourly price risk in a market with rapidly growing renewable generation. Hungary’s peak-period average was €140.80/MWh, while the off-peak average reached €186.60/MWh, reflecting the impact of expensive evening hours.
The €338.90/MWh peak was recorded simultaneously in Germany, Romania and Slovenia, pointing to strong market coupling and a broad tightening of supply conditions after solar output declined.
The contrast with midday prices was significant. Strong renewable generation continued to put downward pressure on prices during solar hours, but the subsequent evening ramp rapidly reversed that effect.
Higher demand offsets stronger renewable output
Forecast electricity consumption across Hungary and Southeast Europe increased by 563 MW to an average of 33,186 MW, despite cooler regional temperatures.
Romania and Bulgaria accounted for most of the increase, with their combined demand rising by 592 MW. Hungarian consumption declined by 40 MW to 4,461 MW, while Greek demand fell by 53 MW to 7,216 MW.
Renewable generation forecasts also improved. Regional solar output was expected to increase by 1,302 MW to 8,558 MW, while wind generation rose by 77 MW to 4,888 MW.
The simultaneous increase in renewable availability and electricity prices suggests that the market was not experiencing a straightforward shortage of daily energy. Instead, the timing of generation, the steep evening ramp and cross-border transmission conditions appear to have been the main drivers of price formation.
The region’s reported net-import position stood at -229 MW, improving by 128 MW from the previous day. Imports from Austria and Slovakia increased by 62 MW to 1,018 MW, providing additional supply to Central and Eastern European markets but failing to prevent the evening price spike.
Hungarian forward prices remain elevated
Hungarian power forwards showed mixed movements at the front of the curve but strengthened across monthly and annual contracts.
The Week 34 contract declined by €0.50/MWh to €160.50/MWh, while Week 35 gained €0.50/MWh to the same level. September 2026 increased by €2.50/MWh to €162.50/MWh, while the calendar contract rose by €2/MWh to €127/MWh.
Hungarian electricity continued to trade at a significant premium to Germany. The HU-DE spread stood at €31/MWh for Week 34, €33.50/MWh for Week 35 and €27.50/MWh for September. The calendar spread was €21/MWh.
The persistence of these spreads suggests that Hungary’s premium is not limited to the day-ahead market. Forward prices continue to reflect expectations of tighter regional balances and greater reliance on imports.
Fuel markets provided additional upward pressure. Austrian CEGH gas rose by €1.20/MWh to €61.90/MWh, increasing the variable cost of gas-fired generation. The EUA carbon price declined by €0.50 to €81.99/t, providing only limited relief, while September coal increased slightly to $122.50/t.
Outlook
The near-term outlook for Southeast European power markets remains bullish but highly dependent on hourly fundamentals. Strong solar generation is likely to continue suppressing prices around midday, while evening prices remain vulnerable to sharp increases as photovoltaic output falls and thermal generation or imports are required to cover demand.
The widening gap between midday and evening prices is making hourly positioning increasingly important. Baseload prices can conceal substantial exposure to the evening ramp, particularly in Hungary, Romania, Slovenia and Croatia.
Regional spreads are also providing important trading signals. Hungary and Romania remain closely coupled, while Greece continues to trade at a substantial discount and Italy maintains a significant premium.
Changes in cross-border transmission availability, thermal generation, renewable forecasts and evening demand could therefore produce substantial movements in both outright electricity prices and regional spreads.