Most Southeast European power markets declined on 12 August as sharply higher wind and solar forecasts improved the regional supply balance and pushed Hungary and SEE from net importers into a small net-export position. Day-ahead prices fell across most of the region and Hungary as stronger renewable generation combined with slightly softer demand.
Hungary’s HUPX baseload contract settled at EUR 144.89/MWh, down EUR 6.50/MWh from the previous session. Romania fell EUR 11.60 to EUR 137.91/MWh, while Bulgaria dropped EUR 21.10 to EUR 125.58/MWh. Serbia recorded the steepest decline, falling EUR 36.30 to EUR 113.61/MWh.
Greece remained the cheapest market among the Southeast European markets at EUR 104.46/MWh, down EUR 11.30. Slovenia and Croatia were close to Hungary at EUR 145.07/MWh and EUR 144.53/MWh respectively. Montenegro settled at EUR 141.50/MWh, while North Macedonia reached EUR 139.47/MWh.
Albania was the only Southeast European market to record a notable increase, with its price rising EUR 6.60 to EUR 156.43/MWh. Italy remained the most expensive neighboring market at EUR 176.07/MWh despite a EUR 5.10 decline.
Germany moved in the opposite direction, with its day-ahead price rising EUR 28 to EUR 138.40/MWh. This sharply reduced Hungary’s premium over Germany to EUR 6.49/MWh, compared with around EUR 41/MWh one day earlier. Hungary traded EUR 40.43/MWh above Greece, EUR 19.30/MWh above Bulgaria and EUR 31.27/MWh above Serbia.
The main bearish factor was a large increase in renewable generation forecasts. Expected solar output across Hungary and Southeast Europe rose by 1,731 MW to 8,904 MW, while wind generation increased by 1,193 MW to 3,825 MW. Combined wind and solar production was therefore forecast at 12,729 MW, up 2,924 MW from the previous day.
Regional electricity demand was forecast at 33,615 MW, down 250 MW day on day. Hungary accounted for much of the decline, with consumption falling 453 MW to 4,610 MW. Demand increased by 407 MW across Romania and Bulgaria and by 23 MW in Greece, while Slovenia and Croatia recorded a combined decline of 265 MW.
The stronger renewable balance significantly changed cross-border power flows. Hungary and SEE moved from net imports of 1,786 MW on Tuesday to net exports of 214 MW on Wednesday, representing a 2,000 MW swing. Imports from Austria and Slovakia fell by 1,793 MW to 1,089 MW, while exports toward Italy increased by 237 MW to around 1,302 MW.
Country-level data showed Greece as the largest net exporter, at 1,763 MW, followed by Bulgaria at 1,155 MW. Hungary remained the largest importer at 1,468 MW, while Croatia, Serbia, Slovenia and Montenegro also remained in deficit. Romania recorded a modest net-export position of 287 MW.
Near-term Hungarian power forwards strengthened even as the spot market weakened. Week 34 rose EUR 6.50 to EUR 161/MWh, while week 35 gained the same amount to EUR 160/MWh. September power declined EUR 3.50 to EUR 160/MWh, and calendar 2026 fell EUR 1.50 to EUR 125/MWh.
The week-ahead Hungarian premium over Germany widened to EUR 30.50/MWh for week 34 and EUR 36.50/MWh for week 35. The September spread stood at EUR 28/MWh, while the calendar 2026 spread remained unchanged at EUR 20.50/MWh.
Fuel markets added further downward pressure along the forward curve. September gas fell EUR 2 to EUR 60/MWh, while the fourth-quarter contract declined EUR 2.50 to the same level. Austrian CEGH spot gas was broadly unchanged at EUR 60.75/MWh. EU carbon allowances edged EUR 0.20 higher to EUR 82.44/t, while September coal rose USD 0.50 to USD 122/t and the fourth-quarter contract remained at USD 124.50/t.
The latest figures point to a well-supplied prompt market, with almost 3 GW of additional wind and solar generation more than offsetting modest changes in demand. The sharp reduction in core imports and the shift to net exports confirm an immediate improvement in the regional power balance. However, higher Hungarian week-ahead prices suggest that traders are not carrying the same bearish view into the next delivery period.