Türkiye followed a markedly different market trajectory from the rest of Southeast Europe in May 2026, according to Electricity.Trade’s latest trading analysis. While most regional wholesale electricity markets recorded higher prices, Türkiye’s monthly spot average dropped to just €11.17/MWh, representing a 39.49% decline from April and an 80.18% decrease compared with May 2025. With electricity prices standing at €119.35/MWh in Italy, €109.56/MWh in Romania, €106.51/MWh in Hungary and €101.07/MWh in Bulgaria, Türkiye emerged as the region’s most significant pricing outlier.
The scale of the price differential created one of the widest spreads in Southeast Europe. Türkiye traded nearly €90/MWh below Bulgaria, around €78/MWh below Greece and more than €108/MWh below Italy, presenting what would typically be viewed as a strong arbitrage opportunity. However, the ability to capitalize on such price differences remains constrained by limited interconnection capacity, transmission rights, market coupling arrangements and balancing requirements. As a result, Türkiye’s exceptionally low prices generated a clear economic signal, but only a limited portion of that value could be transferred to neighbouring European markets.
The country’s generation mix played a major role in shaping this outcome. Electricity production in May was led by 50.31% hydropower, followed by 19.68% renewables, 18.41% coal and lignite, 11.35% natural gas and 0.25% oil. Electricity demand declined by 5.09% compared with April, while renewable generation fell by 6.70%. The decisive factor behind the price decline was the combination of lower demand and abundant hydropower generation, as hydro-rich systems are capable of pushing wholesale prices significantly lower when reservoir conditions are favourable and dispatch patterns align with domestic market dynamics.
Türkiye remained a net electricity exporter during the month, recording 255.00 GWh of net exports. Power exports reached 26.87 GWh to Greece, 44.01 GWh to Bulgaria and 184.12 GWh to Georgia. Although these cross-border flows supported regional trade, their volume was insufficient to significantly reduce the substantial price gap between Türkiye and neighbouring Southeast European markets, highlighting the limited degree of market integration.
Overall, May 2026 demonstrated that Türkiye’s exceptionally low electricity prices were driven not only by favourable generation conditions but also by the country’s relatively limited integration with the broader European power market. The sharp decline underscored the importance of cross-border interconnection capacity, regional market integration and efficient transmission infrastructure. Without stronger physical and regulatory links, even extreme price spreads remain only partially tradable, leaving Türkiye’s hydro-driven low-price environment largely isolated from the pricing dynamics of EU-linked electricity markets.