The 7 July 2026 SEE-Hungary day-ahead market reflected a power system increasingly shaped by regional price differences, local balancing constraints, Italy’s persistent premium, and uneven availability of conventional generation. Rather than being driven by broad regional scarcity, prices were determined by the interaction between import dependence, cross-border flows, and the ability of individual markets to maintain balance during tighter hours.
Most Southeast European markets remained closely grouped around €102–108/MWh, while Italy National continued to stand significantly above the region at €142.36/MWh. At the same time, Germany declined to €72.80/MWh, expanding the HUPX-Germany spread to €34.04/MWh. This spread became the most important market signal of the day: Central Europe benefited from weaker prices, but Hungary and SEE maintained a premium because regional systems still required imports and because part of the available supply was attracted toward Italy’s higher-priced market.
Hungary’s HUPX settled at €106.85/MWh, falling by €9.6/MWh compared with the previous session, but it remained well above German levels. Most regional hubs followed a similar pattern, with OPCOM (Romania) at €103.81/MWh, IBEX (Bulgaria) at €103.03/MWh, HENEX (Greece) at €103.51/MWh, BSP (Slovenia) at €103.11/MWh, CROPEX (Croatia) at €102.34/MWh, and ALPEX (Albania) at €103.56/MWh. Serbia and North Macedonia were the main upward outliers within SEE, with SEEPEX at €108.01/MWh and MEMO at €108.84/MWh, while Montenegro moved in the opposite direction, falling sharply to €93.85/MWh.
The physical market balance explains why prices did not converge toward Germany’s lower levels. Regional consumption increased to 32,075 MW, rising by 1,604 MW day on day, while total net imports climbed to 1,979 MW, an increase of 556 MW. Imports from the core European direction also strengthened, with Austria and Slovakia supplying 3,244 MW, up 549 MW from the previous day.
Lower Central European prices therefore helped support the SEE-Hungary system, but they were not enough to eliminate the regional premium. The market remained dependent on external supply, while internal flows continued to redistribute electricity toward higher-value destinations.
The strongest commercial signal came from Italy’s continued price premium. Even as the wider HU+SEE region remained a net importer, scheduled flows still moved 1,083 MW toward Italy, where prices reached €142.36/MWh. This created a familiar regional trading pattern: Central Europe supplied electricity into Hungary and Slovenia, while available capacity was redirected toward southern and western markets where prices were higher.
Montenegro provided the clearest example of this cross-border optimisation. Although BELEN cleared at €93.85/MWh, commercial schedules showed exports toward Italy of 425 MW during base hours and 438 MW during peak hours, while Montenegro remained a net importer overall at 160 MW. The market dynamic was therefore not driven by domestic oversupply, but by the ability to exploit regional price differences through interconnection capacity.
Serbia remained one of the tighter markets in SEE. SEEPEX increased by €10.2/MWh to €108.01/MWh, placing Serbia above Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Greece, Croatia, Slovenia, and Albania. The country recorded 3,476 MW of consumption, 2,974 MW of generation, and 502 MW of net imports. The pressure was particularly visible during peak hours, when Serbia’s commercial balance reached -785 MW, compared with -219 MW during off-peak periods.
Serbia imported electricity from Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Hungary, Bulgaria, and North Macedonia, while exporting toward Romania and Montenegro. This structure explains why SEEPEX maintained a premium: Serbia was not simply following the regional price trend but reflecting its own peak-hour adequacy constraints.
Hungary showed a similar structural imbalance. Consumption reached 4,662 MW, while domestic generation stood at 3,695 MW, leaving the country with 967 MW of net imports. The market relied heavily on Austrian and Slovak flows, while still supporting exports toward Croatia, Slovenia, and Romania during certain periods. As a result, HUPX remained a regional balancing hub rather than simply following German market weakness.
Romania’s decline to €103.81/MWh was supported by the return of Cernavoda Unit 1, which restored approximately 700 MW of nuclear capacity following scheduled maintenance. The additional nuclear output improved supply conditions, particularly during evening periods when solar generation declines. However, Romania still recorded 596 MW of net imports, indicating that the market had become less tight rather than fully oversupplied.
Bulgaria continued to act as the region’s main supply contributor. The country recorded 5,074 MW of generation against 3,809 MW of consumption, creating 1,266 MW of net exports. Electricity flowed toward Romania, Serbia, North Macedonia, and Greece, reinforcing Bulgaria’s role as a regional balancing supplier when nuclear and renewable output are available. Despite this surplus position, IBEX remained close to regional prices because interconnectors absorbed much of the available generation.
Greece traded near the regional average at €103.51/MWh despite strong solar production and flexible gas generation. The country recorded 7,192 MW of consumption and 7,274 MW of generation, with limited base exports of 82 MW but stronger peak exports of 630 MW. Greece exported toward North Macedonia, Albania, and Italy while importing from Bulgaria, creating a balanced regional position that kept HENEX closely aligned with neighboring markets.
Forward markets showed a more optimistic outlook than the immediate spot environment. Hungarian Week 29 prices declined to €132/MWh, down €14/MWh, while Week 30 fell to €126/MWh, down €7.5/MWh. The Hungarian Week 29 premium over Germany narrowed to €19.5/MWh, suggesting expectations of reduced short-term pressure. Fuel markets also softened, with CEGH gas at €45.71/MWh, Greek gas at €42.87/MWh, and lower coal forwards, although EU carbon allowances increased to €81.79/t.
The forward curve therefore suggests some relief from current tightness, but not a complete return to normal conditions. The market continues to price structural differences between Germany, Hungary, SEE, and Italy.
The overall trading message is clear: SEE spot prices softened, but the region’s structural premium remains intact. Hungary continued to trade above Germany, Serbia faced tighter domestic conditions, and Italy maintained the strongest price signal in the region. For traders, the most important spreads remain Germany versus Hungary, SEE versus Italy, and Serbia versus the regional cluster.
For generators and investors, the value opportunity is increasingly concentrated in flexibility during high-value hours. Hydro, gas, batteries, demand response, and cross-border capacity will continue to gain importance as markets move away from simple baseload pricing toward a system where timing, location, and operational flexibility determine revenue value.