SEE power markets entered Week 25 with a clear bullish bias in most Central and Western Balkan markets, despite a softer gas backdrop. The regional average story was shaped by higher demand, weaker hydro, lower wind and a larger call on thermal generation. Demand increased 3.1% to 16.34 TWh, while thermal output rose 19.4% to 5.31 TWh. Gas-fired generation added 771 GWh, rising 32.3% week-on-week.
The price board split into four groups. Italy remained the premium market at €127.69/MWh, up 3.7%, supported by lower hydro, weaker wind, higher thermal dispatch and continued import dependence. Hungary, Romania and Croatia formed the high-price SEE cluster, with averages of €109.16/MWh, €104.84/MWh and €102.36/MWh respectively. Serbia, Greece and Bulgaria traded in a lower band around €85–88/MWh, while Türkiye stayed detached at €16.66/MWh.
The strongest trading feature was the evening ramp. Solar output rose by 8.1%, but wind fell by 4.4%, creating a market shape where midday prices softened and evening prices tightened. This strengthened the value of flexible generation, storage, cross-border capacity and shaped delivery products.
Cross-border flows were equally important. SEE net imports fell 20.4% to 1.03 TWh, yet Italy still imported 1.12 TWhnet. Greece and Bulgaria deepened export positions, Serbia shifted into a modest net export position, and Croatia increased import dependency. This created a market where spreads were driven by physical availability and border capacity rather than fuel prices alone.
Gas markets moved lower. TTF futures averaged €41.76/MWh, down 14.8%, while LNG inflows into Greece and Italy increased. The fall in gas reduced fuel-cost pressure, but did not stop power prices from rising because the system required more dispatchable generation.
The forward signal remained firm. Day-ahead prices for 24 June moved sharply higher across SEE, ranging from €106.81/MWh in Albania and Kosovo to €202.95/MWh in Romania. The market entered the following week with scarcity pricing still active.