Cross-border flows were one of the decisive features of SEE electricity trading in Week 25. Regional net imports declined by 20.4% to 1.03 TWh, but the headline reduction masks a more complex market structure. Italy remained the dominant net importer with 1.12 TWh, Croatia increased net imports by 26.0%, Greece and Bulgaria deepened export positions, and Serbia moved from net imports of 107 GWh to net exports of 21 GWh.
This is exactly the type of week where border capacity becomes as important as generation cost. The region had both surplus pockets and premium demand zones. Greece and Bulgaria traded at lower average prices, while Italy, Hungary, Romania and Croatia were materially higher. The commercial question was not simply where power was cheapest, but whether it could move to the markets that needed it at the right hour.
Italy’s import pull remained central. Its price of €127.69/MWh created a strong premium against most SEE markets. Hungary, Romania and Croatia also moved into higher-price territory, strengthening the value of cross-border optionality. Serbia’s shift into modest net export shows that even markets with relatively lower prices can become suppliers into tighter regional conditions.
The flow map also shows the growing importance of congestion. Price spreads only matter when interconnectors are available. A low-price market without export capacity remains local. A moderately priced market with access to a premium zone can become commercially valuable. This is why the SEE trading conversation is moving toward hourly transmission capacity, nomination strategy, balancing exposure and congestion rents.
For renewable developers, cross-border flows now influence bankability. A project located in a market with recurring local surplus may face weaker capture prices unless it has access to export routes, storage or shaped offtake. For industrial buyers, cross-border exposure affects procurement risk because domestic prices can rise even when local generation improves.
Week 25 confirms that SEE is no longer a set of separate national power markets loosely connected by occasional flows. It is becoming an increasingly integrated scarcity network. The winners will be those able to read price spreads, transmission constraints and hourly generation patterns together.